China's self-sufficiency is declining
Rising incomes of a growing middle and upper class in China demand higher value-added products. Despite all the efforts of Chinese agriculture, it is not possible to meet the growing consumption in all areas.
In the case of pork, which has the highest per capita consumption of almost 40 kg, the self-sufficiency level of just under 100% can be achieved if around 1.5 to 2% more pork is produced each year. If this is not possible in individual years, more pork is imported. The previous peak in pork sausage imports was 1.1 million tons with China and Hong Kong together. Unfortunately, Europe only supplies inferior cuts, which are a delicacy in China (paws, tails, sliced trunks, pig heads)
Beef consumption has only increased recently as incomes have risen, so that the high surpluses in the 1990s have now been reduced to zero. However, per capita consumption is only 6.5 kg.
The supply of poultry meat is subject to severe fluctuations due to recurring outbreaks of disease in the widespread backyard farms with inadequate hygiene.
Self-sufficiency in dairy products has plummeted since the melamine scandal. Confidence in Chinese products is fundamentally negative. Since 2006, domestic production has stagnated, having previously grown by leaps and bounds. Nevertheless, consumption of dairy products is on the rise. The supply is made up of long-life products such as whole and skimmed milk powder and cheese from abroad, primarily from New Zealand.
The strong Chinese demand for dairy products has a decisive influence on dairy product prices at a global level. Given the high export dependency of European milk production, milk producers benefit indirectly from this enormous growth in demand. If income growth in China declines, there are fears that the high milk price level in this country can hardly be maintained.
The increasing westernization of consumer habits means that an end to the growth in demand is not yet in sight. A one percent increase in consumption has a multiplier of 1.4 billion Chinese. (In comparison, 508 million people live in the EU-28)
