More pigs in Germany than previously assumed.
The preliminary results of the official livestock census for pigs in Germany from May 2013 had to be corrected upwards by around 250,000 pigs. A significant share of the change was found in NRW with an increase of 200,000 animals. The correction is attributable to the change in the livestock recording system.
Despite the corrections, the German pig population still decreased by 1.6% to 27.7 million animals compared to the previous year. The 2.9% decline in young pigs weighing up to 50 kg has already been reflected in the reduction in slaughter figures in recent months. Instead of more than 1 million slaughterings per week, only around 925,000 were reported by the farms subject to the reporting obligation.
The decline in the number of sows has been particularly marked at -5.3% and -6.5% for pregnant sows. The new EU sow husbandry regulation is likely to have been a major contributing factor.
Compared to the previous year, around 120,000 sows are missing in Germany. On a rough calculation, this means around 2.4 million fewer piglets per year. To compensate for this figure, an increase in output of around 1.15 piglets per sow would be required. However, an increase of 0.15 piglets per year is realistic.
In purely arithmetical terms, there is therefore likely to be a shortfall of around 2 million piglets from German domestic production compared to previous years.
Compensation from increasing farrowing imports from the Netherlands and Denmark is not to be expected according to the weekly and monthly import statistics to date.
Partial confirmation of this development can be found in piglet prices, which have risen rather than fallen compared to earlier in the season. Another decisive cause is, of course, the current high pig prices, which regularly drag down the piglet price level to a considerable extent.
In contrast to the variable change in carcass weights in the cattle sector from the 120 kg calf to the 400 kg fattened bull, German pig carcass weights only vary between 94 and 96 kg. It follows that the influence of piglet numbers on pork production is of dominant importance. The further conclusion is that only an increase in the number of piglets can contribute to an increase in pork production, primarily by keeping more sows. The production period alone from an additionally housed gilt to a piglet ready for sale takes at least 7 months plus at least 3 months fattening time.
A supply reaction to the current high pig prices is not to be expected for the time being. Rather, price-related restrictions in demand are to be expected, which could lead to a price stabilization.
