Eurostat: Forecast of further slaughter pig volumes in 2013 in the EU-27
At the end of August, the statistical office of the EU updated its forecast figures for the further quarterly volume of pigs for slaughter on the basis of the latest livestock censuses. At first glance, it can therefore be assumed that the number of pigs awaiting slaughter will increase in the coming 4th quarter of 2013.
However, there are 3 qualifying observations to be made.
- Compared to the same quarter in 2012, the number of slaughterings will be significantly lower at -3.7%.
- The Italian figures given for the 4th quarter of 2013 are completely out of line at plus 17.7% compared to the previous quarter and the same quarter of the previous year, so that their reliability must be doubted.
- In the many smaller countries, especially the CEE countries, home slaughtering is increasing seasonally as part of self-sufficiency, so that its effect should not be overestimated.
If Italy and the other small countries are excluded, the picture is much more stable. Increases in the 4th quarter are seasonal, but will be significantly lower in 2013 than in the previous year. The increase compared to the 3rd quarter of 2013 is also smaller at just +0.2%. This observation applies to all major production areas in the EU-27. For Germany, Denmark, Spain, the Netherlands and France, there is no significant increase in animal numbers for the rest of 2013 compared to the period of July, August and September.
This finding does not rule out the possibility that the weekly drive-ups can vary greatly and result in corresponding price fluctuations. The past three weeks have clearly demonstrated this phenomenon.
For Germany, the average weekly volume in the 4th quarter of 2013 was around 962,000 slaughter pigs, only slightly more than in the 3rd quarter of 2013 with around 959,000 animals. The above figures are not comparable with the data from the slaughterhouses and trading companies subject to reporting requirements. The only interesting aspect is the slight change, which should also be reflected in the reporting figures.
However, the 4th quarter still has its special features with the public holidays around Christmas, so that the specific circumstances before, during and after the Christmas period are to be expected here again
If demand from Germany and abroad does not bring about any significant changes, no massive price pressure or fall in prices to the €1.60 per kg mark is to be expected from the supply side, as was the case last year. On the other hand, with high and rising consumer prices, it is unlikely that further large price jumps above the €2/kg mark will be feasible.
