EU Short Term Outlook: more beef, less exports - too little growth in consumption
EU beef production and consumption have fallen steadily in recent years. Domestic production has fallen so sharply that the EU has become a net importer rather than a net exporter. In 2013, beef imports will be around twice as high as exports of 150 million tons. The loss of export volumes to Turkey and Russia has torn a considerable hole in the export statistics that could not be filled again.
Nevertheless, supply volumes from domestic production and imports remain higher than domestic consumption and exports. For some time now, there has been an increasing reluctance to slaughter heifers. The animals are needed for the restocking of cows, as the dairy sector currently offers good earning opportunities. In fact, there has been an unprecedented increase in cow herds for 20 years. In previous years, the higher milk volume was achieved exclusively from the increase in milk yield per cow and year.
A growing number of cows increases the number of cow and bull calves produced. This lays the foundation for increasing beef production in 2014.
However, beef consumption is not increasing to the same extent. Per capita consumption will fall from 11 to 10.7 kg on average in the EU-28, estimated for 2013 and 2014.
Beef prices are not only falling in Germany, however; price reductions can also be observed on the global market. It will not be possible to escape the general trend in trade, even if there are still small customs duties and levies on EU beef imports.
