EU Short Term Outlook (fall edition) - Reduced pig herds in 2013 - rising slaughter figures in 2014
After 2 years of declining slaughter figures in 2012 and 2013, the EU Commission estimates a slight increase in pig slaughterings of around 0.6% for 2014.
For 2012, there was a decline in reported slaughtering of around -2%. The provisional result for the first half of 2013 is -1.1%. With rising slaughter weights, the volume of pork is said to have fallen by only -0.6% due to the increase in slaughter weights across Europe.
A stronger downturn is expected for the second half of 2013 due to the reduced stock numbers, which is projected to average -1.2% for the year. The new member states are expected to have a particularly strong influence.
The above-average reduction in sow herd numbers of -2.3% as a result of increased requirements for sow husbandry will continue to have an impact into 2014. In Germany (-5.4 %) and Spain (-6.5 %), the adjustment reactions in 2013 had a particularly strong impact.
Improved profitability in pig farming as a result of falling feed costs and comparatively high pig prices will boost production again in the course of 2014 after a corresponding pause for recovery. After three years of declining consumption, the EU Commission estimates a slight increase in Europe-wide consumption, leaving less for export than in previous years.
In view of the supply freeze for the USA and Canada, there are good prospects for exports to Russia. The Russian export share is still estimated at 20 %. Over time, China could move up to second place in EU exports to third countries.
There were no statements regarding price expectations.
