Evaluation of the livestock census results from May 3, 2013 - 2.5% fewer pigs, 6.2% fewer sows in Germany
The livestock census results from May 3, 2013 now provide more robust data than in the previous transition phase to the new survey methodology, even if the changeover process has not yet been fully completed. In particular, comparability with the previous year's results from May 2012 is more reliable.
The total number of pigs recorded was 27.4 million (previous year: 28.13 million). This corresponds to a decrease of 2.5% compared to the same month last year.
The number of sows fell by 135,200 from 2.17 million to 2.037 million, or 6.2%. Assuming a slightly below-average output of 22 piglets per sow and year in the abandoned herds, there is a shortfall of around 3 million piglets from domestic production. Based on the current development of piglet import statistics, it can be assumed that piglet imports from the Netherlands and Denmark will stagnate or have fallen noticeably since the beginning of 2013. Further increases in piglet performance per sow and year will be minimal. An increase in output of 1.46 piglets per sow and year would have to be achieved to fully compensate for the lost piglet numbers. This is highly unlikely.
Confirmation of this development can be seen in random samples of the number of piglets traded in north-western and southern Germany, where a decline of between 3 and 4 % was recorded in the period from January to May 2013. Further indirect evidence comes from the recent decline in slaughter figures from slaughterhouses subject to reporting requirements, which are well below the 1 million mark per week.
Sow numbers have developed very differently in the individual federal states. In a year-on-year comparison, 80% of the decline in sow numbers took place in Lower Saxony (-47,600 sows or -8.5%), Bavaria (-24,200 sows or -8.45%), North Rhine-Westphalia (-20,400 sows or -4.5%) and Baden-Württemberg (-17,000 sows or -8.6%). The reduction in the herd in the state of Saxony is also considerable at - 9,600 sows or - 12.3 %. On the other hand, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania the sow herd increased by + 7,400 animals or + 8.3 %, presumably as an effect of the state-specific investment aid, but remains an isolated case.
In the herd size classes below 100 sows, more than 22 % of sow holdings were discontinued compared to the same period in the previous year, while even small increases were achieved in the upper units, although these were nowhere near enough to significantly slow down the decline.
It can rightly be assumed that the unfavorable piglet prices of previous years and the animal husbandry regulations from 1 Jan 2013 have made a significant contribution to the reduction in sow numbers. A comparison with the Nov 2012 census confirms the strong effect of the new livestock ordinance. In the period up to May 2013, 9.9% of sow holdings were discontinued compared to 15% in the previous year.
In the fattening pig sector, the national average of - 0.1% shows little movement, but there have been significant changes in the individual federal states. At - 49,400 fattening pigs, Lower Saxony recorded the highest absolute decline in the number of fattening pigs, but only accounts for 1.1% of the total number of fattening pigs in Lower Saxony. The second largest region, NRW, increased its fattening stock by 77,400, corresponding to an increase of 2.4%. An increase in capacity of + 46,200 or + 6.7 % was recorded in Schleswig Holstein. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania recorded the highest percentage decrease in fattening pigs at -12.6% (- 37,900), while Thuringia achieved the highest percentage increase at + 9.4% (= 17,800).
The considerable increases and decreases in the number of fattening pigs are mainly the result of restructuring measures, while new investments are of lesser importance. It is noticeable that the strong changes in sow herds are often accompanied by opposing changes in fattening herds. This is particularly pronounced in Baden-Württemberg with the decline in sow numbers and the increase in fattening pigs, as well as in Schleswig-Holstein, Saxony and Thuringia. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the conversion process went in the opposite direction.
Conclusion:
The livestock census of May 2013 revealed a significant structural change in German pig farming. The reassuring average figures conceal serious structural conversion processes. The trend towards larger herd units has accelerated. Depending on regional site conditions, there is an increasing shift in emphasis between sow and fattening pig farming. German sow husbandry is clearly in decline, resulting in lower piglet numbers, which cannot be compensated for in the foreseeable future. In view of the surplus fattening capacity, piglets will remain scarce and - relatively speaking in terms of pig and feed prices - expensive.
