US hog inventory as of June 1, 2013
The quarterly inventory of the pig herd in the USA showed a herd of 66.64 million animals as at June 1, 2013 (previous year: 66.66 million). The slight reduction is no longer surprising, as the previous inventories had already revealed an astonishingly high resistance to the adverse economic conditions in the US pig industry. Among other things, it is also pointed out that pig farmers in the USA are not so heavily dependent on the spot prices of feed and pig prices, but have hedged themselves to a considerable extent through forward, future and option transactions.
Compared to the March inventory, the number of US pigs has increased by a further 2%.
The number of breeding pigs has risen again slightly compared to both the same quarter of the previous year and the March census, a development that points to future increases in the herd. The US pig industry is being supported by the prospect of high harvests with significant falls in feed prices, which will begin in late summer. The forecast decline in US hog prices is clearly not a deterrent.
For the time being, the number of pigs being fattened in the individual weight classes is slightly lower than in the previous year. This is good for the current market relief, because despite the barbecue season, pork sales are under pressure due to sluggish exports. The Russian sales market has completely collapsed due to ractopamine. Sales to China/Hong Kong have also lost momentum. Japan's US imports are stagnating. The strong increase in sales to Mexico is having an offsetting effect.
The most recent swine epidemic PEDv has not yet had a decisive impact on the US inventory figures, as the development only escalated in the middle to end of the month. It is therefore possible that the volume of pigs will be somewhat overestimated on the basis of the stock surveys for the coming months.
