Medium-term outlook for the EU pork market 2013 to 2022
The EU-27 has a self-sufficiency rate for pork of around 110%. According to estimates by the EU Commission, this percentage is expected to change only marginally by 2022.
On the production side, it is assumed that after the decline in production in 2012/13, pig farming will increase again in the second half of 2014. This is due to the fall in feed prices and the comparatively low pig prices. However, the expansion of production is being slowed down by increasing animal welfare and environmental protection requirements. By 2022, the production level achieved will only increase slightly and, at around 23 million tons, will reach a level similar to that last seen in 2011.
The increasing requirements in the previous conurbations of pig farming will lead to other locations gaining relative competitive advantages and investment locations will shift accordingly. However, the process will take time
On the demand side, no significant change in consumption is expected. The decline in per capita consumption in the EU as a whole will be offset by the small increase in population. The earlier differences between developments in the old EU-15 and the new member states have become smaller. Per capita consumption in the EU-10 states is estimated to be around 1 kg higher with an upward trend, while consumption in the old EU-15 is declining accordingly. The main reason for this development is the level of income, which still tends to increase meat consumption in the east, but decreases in the west.
The pork trade is expected to remain largely unchanged. On the import side, it is virtually insignificant. On the export side, it is estimated to be less than 2 million tons. This means that 2011 and 2012, with exports of almost 2.2 million tons, are a thing of the past. The stagnation in third-country business is due to the increasing self-sufficiency of importing countries that were previously close to transportation, such as Russia, and Europe's limited competitiveness compared to other pork exporters such as the USA, Canada and Brazil, particularly in Asian business such as Japan, China and others.
Conclusion:
EU pork production will not be able to set itself up for growth in the coming decade, but will consolidate and realign itself within the EU. In any case, the Chinese will not primarily source their pork requirements from Europe. Russia will stubbornly continue to pursue its long-term goal of becoming self-sufficient in pork for the foreseeable future.
