Piglet prices at the beginning of July 2013
There are systematic correlations between piglet and pig prices. However, movements in fattening pig prices are not always reflected in congruent changes in piglet prices. There are typical seasonal dependencies and, more recently, less pronounced cyclical fluctuations.
The clearly visible seasonal deviations between piglet prices and fattening pig prices can be observed in large swings. Piglet prices regularly deviate upwards by 10 to 15 % from the long-term average in the first half of the year, with a focus on February and March. In the 2nd half of the year, the low point is reached in October with a relative 87 %.
For the two years 2012 and 2013, the actual piglet prices in the 1st half of the year were still more or less parallel to the multi-year average curve, but in the 2nd half of 2012, piglet prices rose significantly with the Sept date. The typical seasonal slump in piglet prices did not materialize. Two main factors are responsible for this. Firstly, the pig price peaked at € 1.93/kg in the fall months of 2012, pulling piglet prices upwards with it. Despite a subsequent decline towards €1.8 to €1.7/kg, piglet prices remained at a high level. The reason for this was the reduced supply of piglets, which was caused by the impending revision of the sow keeping regulations (cyclical overlay). Conversely, a similar development took place in the spring months of 2013. The seasonal rise in piglet prices was dampened by weak pig prices until recently.
Piglet prices have currently stabilized again. There is a high probability that piglet prices will remain stable for the rest of 2013, contrary to the multi-year seasonality of the previous year. This is supported by a) the declining piglet supply with a significant surplus of fattening places, b) declining feed prices, which make it easier for fatteners to purchase relatively more expensive piglets, and c) the forecast of declining pig slaughterings in the second half of 2013 with possibly relatively stable pig prices.
