Prospects for the EU-28 beef market
After beef prices soared to over €4/kg R3 young bull last autumn/winter 2012, prices have recently slumped and are currently trying to stabilize between €3.5 and €3.6 per kg. The price declines had already been set at global market level, but it was only with the near-total collapse of EU exports to Turkey and Russia that prices could no longer be maintained in this country either.
For the current year 2013, a slight decline in production from 7.75 to 7.67 million tons is expected in the EU-27. Croatia will contribute around 47,000 tons of beef on the production side and 42,000 tons on the demand side (-12% compared to the previous year). The degree of self-sufficiency of the EU including Croatia is calculated at 98%.
Beef exports will fall to 185,000 tons, while imports will increase to 307,000 tons. A significant proportion of this comes from Brazil with an increase of around 40% in the first half of the year and Uruquay with growth of 14%. Despite an increased beef cattle herd, Argentina has reduced its exports to Europe.
Beef consumption is decreasing slightly, reaching a per capita consumption of only 10.8 kg.
The outlook for 2014 points to an increase in production of 0.75%, which is due to an increase in the number of cows with a corresponding number of calves. Estimates for 2014 assume that consumption will grow at almost the same rate. Foreign trade in beef is not expected to change significantly.
Beef prices in the EU still have some catching up to do compared to other price trends in the meat sector, given the same starting basis in 2000. The setbacks caused by the BSE crises were a decisive reason for this.
