Rabobank forecast: Global pork market in the second half of 2013 with positive expectations, but with lower prices than previously estimated.
In its quarterly forecast, the Dutch Rabobank predicts a more favorable economic outlook for the second half of 2013 and into the first half of 2014.
Falling feed prices coupled with favorable pig prices are improving the profitability of pork production around the world. However, the extent to which the losses in the first half of 2013 will be fully offset remains questionable.
The limited demand in the industrialized countries is holding back a further increase in pig prices. Rabobank expects prices to moderate again in the second half of the year.
In the meantime, a boost could come from China if the end-of-year celebrations trigger increased meat consumption. In terms of mass consumption, pork has price advantages over beef. Poultry meat has been discredited by the H7N9 virus due to the risk of infection. It is possible that the Smithfield Group takeover by the Chinese will be followed by further purchases in order to secure rising demand in this way.
