Russia import lock: the consequences are emerging more clearly
The US agriculture representative in Moscow worked all documents relating to the recent development on the meat markets in Russia.
Russian beef imports 1 million tons were originally been misjudged for the year 2014 rd.. After the recent development is now to assume that after the import ban as of early August 2014 with only 0.8 million t is. The imports were so low for over 10 years no longer.
The Russian Equity production of beef is expected to increase from 1.37 to 1.4 million tons. The sharply higher producer prices lead to recycle all battle-ready cattle from the food chain. It ignores the restocking of inventories with the consequence that in subsequent years the necessary talent is missing. In the last 20 years building of meat cattle through the importation of live animals is prevented so laboriously built up stocks will again decline.
Russia's pork imports were moving over the years 2012 and 2013 between 0.9 to 1 million tonnes. According to current estimates, imports will fall back into the year 2014 to 650,000 in 2015 to 375,000 tonnes. It is obvious that substitute imports from Brazil and other countries are by far insufficient to compensate for the suspended imports from North America and the EU.
The Russian pork production should rise by 2.65 million tonnes in the year 2014 to 2.82 million in 2015. The increase in meat production is however at the expense of the Lebendtierbestandes. The herds are expected 20.5 million animals to under 19 million fall.
The consequences of this development are expected. Decimated the herd population at the expense of future increase to the current security of supply. Possibly the import locks are released in a year again, so that the false demand from rising imports can be again saved. But who wants to guarantee that!
