Updated and corrected livestock census evaluation in representative EU countries
The livestock census results revised by Eurostat basically provide the same information as the first version. The representative pig populations recorded in the most important production areas have fallen by around 2% compared to the previous year. However, there are some considerable changes.
Significant corrections have been made to the Polish figures. Instead of an increase in herds, it is now assumed that herds have decreased by 4%. This means that Poland has lost 40% of its pig population since joining the EU. The Italian figures have also been changed so that they are now at least plausibly in line with current market conditions in Italy.
The sow herds in the selected 13 countries are expected to fall by 3.4%. The largest decrease of -8 % is reported from Poland. However, Spain, the 2nd largest production area in the EU, is also expecting a 6% reduction in sow numbers. For Germany, Eurostat reports a decline in the sow herd of around 5.5%. Only Italy, the Netherlands, Ireland and Denmark recorded positive changes in their herds.
The considerable reduction in the sow herd suggests that the number of piglets and fattening pigs will be lower into 2014. There is a shortfall of 386,000 sows in the 13 countries, which would have delivered around 7.5 million piglets with a slightly below-average performance. If a genetic and structural performance increase of 0.2 piglets per sow and year is taken into account, a partial compensation of around 2.2 million piglets is conceivable. On balance, this leaves a calculated shortfall of piglets of around 5 million.
The livestock censuses in fall/winter 2013 will again provide information on whether and to what extent a turnaround in the European pig population trend is taking place. As a rule, the fall/winter censuses provide lower population figures due to seasonal factors.
