PED epidemic with no detectable impact on US pig population
The quarterly US livestock census revealed a pig herd that was only slightly higher than in the previous year, but 3% higher than in the June census. In market circles, a reduction in the order of - 1.5% had been expected.
A major surprise was the finding that the effects of the PEDv epidemic (a deadly diarrheal disease in baby piglets) could not be detected in any of the weight classes in the herd figures. It must be assumed that the damage calculations for this diarrheal disease have been overestimated.
In the category of fattening pigs weighing 25 kg or more, the herds were consistently 1% higher than in the previous year. The exception was the over 80 kg fattening group, which was 4% lower than the previous year. As these animals have already been slaughtered, there is a strong correlation with the lower slaughter figures and the corresponding price upswing in recent weeks.
Sow numbers have changed little compared to the previous year, but have fallen by 1% compared to the June census. The rising number of piglets per sow and year should largely offset the decline in the herd.
The livestock census results suggest an unexpectedly high increase in US pig supply in the coming months. The usual seasonal effect of rising slaughter weights will also contribute to a larger volume of meat. In view of the limited prospects for rising exports, US hog prices are expected to be significantly dampened. Forward quotations for the spring months of 2014 point to prices below €1.50/kg (at $1.35 per €).
Subsequent comments on the pig counts cast doubt on the accuracy of the results. A critical eye will be kept on the upcoming slaughter figures, they assure us.
