Impact of US tariff policy on the global pork trade
Compared to other agricultural products with a longer shelf life, global trade in pork is comparatively low at less than 9% of production. However, a distinction must be made between the sensitive fresh or chilled cuts and the so-called by-products. By comparison, the global beef trade is considerably larger, accounting for over 19% of production.
The trade in pork is concentrated in a few large countries. In addition, there are a large number of smaller regions that account for almost half of global imports, particularly on the import side.
On the export side, the USA is in first place with a market share of 31%, followed by the EU with 29%. Canadian exports are still a significant factor with a declining share of 13.5%. Brazil is increasingly pushing upwards and now has a share of almost 16 %, compared to just 12 % 3 years ago: The aforementioned 4 regions account for around 90% of the pork exports recorded worldwide.
On the import side, 3 countries stand out with large import volumes. Of these, China/HK was temporarily in the lead in recent years due to the ASF epidemic at the time, with a trade share of over 50%. In the last 2 years, the share has fallen back to 17%. Japanese imports have remained fairly stable at 16% over the years. Mexico's pork imports have risen from 13.2 % to the current 16.5 % in the last 3 years. The rest of the trade shares are distributed among many countries with comparatively small import volumes. The UK is still the most important of these with 8.3 % (0.75 million tons).
The disputes with the US import tariff policy initially directly affect the USA as the largest exporter and the major importing countries China, Japan and Mexico.
US deliveries to Mexico amount to around 1.1 million tons and account for around 35% of US exports. Measured against Mexican imports, the share is an impressive 70%:
US deliveries to China have already fallen sharply and were recently only 0.5 million tons. However, the import share still amounted to 30% of Chinese imports. The current high tariff rates of 125% are pushing imports back to zero.
Typically, 0.35 million tons of US pork, or 24% of Japanese imports and 11% of US exports, flowed to Japan.
Reactions to the pork trade have already begun in Feb. 2025. US exports to Japan fell by around -20 % in the same month, to South Korea also by -20 % and to Mexico by only -3 % due to the Mexican government's concession. The most recent export data indicate considerable rates of change, but are not yet statistically available.
Brazilian exporters are currently benefitingindirectly with export increases of +18% in the first quarter of 2025, with a focus on deliveries to Mexico, China and Japan.
The change in supply at global level increased the FAO pork price index by +1.7 percentage points in March 2025 alone compared to the previous month.
