USDA with new estimate of the global pork market
In mid-April 2025, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published a revised estimate of the global pork market in 2025. Total production is expected to increase slightly to 116.7 million tons. Global consumption will increase by the same amount. Global trade will fall slightly to 10.17 million tons.
In China, the world's largest production area, pork production is expected to only just hold its own at 57 million tons. Although the number of sows will be reduced, rising piglet output will almost compensate for the decline in stock numbers. Domestic consumption is estimated at a little changed 58.2 million tons. A decline in consumption estimated in Oct. 25 has been corrected. Chinese pork imports are now forecast at only 1.55 million tons, including Hong Kong. In 2021, at the time of the ASF epidemic, it was 4.7 million tons.
In the EU-27, the second largest production area, production is estimated to fall to 21.05 million tons. EU consumption falls slightly to 18.25 million tons. Exports are estimated at 2.9 million tons (previous year 3.1 million tons).
In the USA, production is expected to increase by 1% to 12.74 million tons compared to the previous year. Domestic consumption is expected to increase slightly to 10.1 million tons. Exports are initially estimated at 3.35 million tons, although customs policy is still causing some uncertainty, particularly when it comes to China, Mexico and Canada.
Brazil's pork production continues to grow by +2.2 %. Since 2020, production has risen from 4.1 to 4.6 million tons this year. With domestic consumption stagnating, exports are estimated at 1.6 million tons (2020: 1.1 million tons). The South Americans are increasingly tapping into new sales areas in Southeast Asia and, more recently, in Mexico.
Canada's pork production has been stagnating for years at around 2 million tons. Exports are expected to fall to 1.3 million tons (previous year: 1.4 million tons) due to political tensions with China and the USA.
In the remaining production areas, production and consumption have been balanced for years at around 11 million tons with only minor changes.
