USDA estimate - medium to longer-term U.S. pork production and hog prices
In an early release of the annual long-term forecasts , the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) has expressed his expectations for further development in the U.S. pork market. In the last two years 2013 and 2014, the U.S. market would haunted of PEDv disease (fatal diarrhea disease in piglets). Failure rates were partially offset by higher slaughter weights up to 15%. Nevertheless, pig prices increased by 2014 in the tip well above $2 per kg. The health train has indeed declined an intensity, remains still virulent. The decisive phase will the cold winter time but by 2015.
For not until little affected US pig farmers was 2014 a bestthat they have ever experienced. Company profits up to $70 per pig were completely unknown in recent decades.
For the year 2015, the USDA estimates an increase of production and consumption in the order of magnitude 4.5%. The export is also slightly higher. Pork prices should no longer reach the previous year's level, but still should be for US conditions on unusual high level of between 1.80 and $1.90 per kg arrive. In light of recent developments on the international pork market, this classification should be at the upper end of the possibilities .
For the year 2016 is again with a major US offer boost to over 11.5 million tonnes expected pork. Domestic demand should not wear with while in equal measure, it is however increasing export opportunities. The price level shall be based on $1.75 the kg fall back.
Assumed for the rest period of the observation period be average growth rates of production, consumption and export.
U.S. pork prices should continue to give. The level of previous years by 1.50 to $1.60 per kg will be commencing in 2017 and afterwards predicted. However, it is a rough guide, without taking into account of unknown year-specific events.
The potential impact of the U.S. pork market on the European pig should be considered from the perspective of the growing competition between the two largest exporting countries. The United States will seek more closely to the importing countries in the Asian region. The EU will have significant problems with the profit recovery in the third country business likely to with without Russian border opening. Even a readmission of exports of Russia will not lead back to the old ways of the sales of previous years. The economic weakness of the income and the strong loss of purchasing power of the Russian currency reduces the import potential to a fraction of previous years.
Also, the assessment rate of the euroremains uncertain. The currently weak development benefits while the export opportunities of the competitors, but the import potential is small and highly competitive.
