China produces, consumes and imports less pork
The US Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) has published figures on the Chinese pork market in its latest report at the end of Aug 2024 with some unexpected results.
The decade-long increase in production and consumption of a staple food was massively reduced in 2019-21 due to ASF, but subsequently rebuilt with strong growth rates in domestic production and high imports. However, the expectation that the previous trend would continue is contradicted by last year's development and the prospects for the coming year.
In 2023, pork production still reached around 58 million tons; consumption was just under 60 million tons. The shortfall was offset by just under 2 million tons of imports.
For 2024, it appears that domestic production will fall to 56.75 million tons. This is due to the Chinese government's goal of restricting sow farming to such an extent that no price-cutting surpluses arise. Any surplus demand can be offset at any time by cheap imports. A high proportion of these imports are so-called by-products, some of which are delicacies in China, but which cause sales problems in other countries. In order to protect the producers, tariffs of up to 60% are imposed on meat imports.
With the prescribed reduction in sow farming, production volumes are only expected to reach 55.5 million tons in 2025. Consumption is expected to fall to just under 57 million tons, especially as an increase in beef production and beef imports will compensate for this. Pork imports are expected to remain unchanged at 1.5 million tons, half of which consists of by-products.
In recent years, the high level of Chinese imports has had a considerable impact on pork prices in the supplier countries. The EU, with Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands in the lead, has felt the painful effects of declining deliveries. Germany had been out of the running for some time due to the ASF import ban.
The severe restriction of EU pork production has contributed to the fact that export pressure is less pronounced. The increasing reduction in slaughter capacity in the major EU exporting countries suggests that a return to previous production volumes is not considered likely.
