USDA estimates world pork market little changed.
In its quarterly July 24 report on the pork market, the USDA estimates little change in total production at 116.3 million tons. Consumption is estimated to be slightly lower than last year at 115.1 million tons. Global trade is expected to increase slightly on the export side. However, different developments can be observed in the individual production regions.
In China, the world's largest production region, production is expected to fall by -2.1% to 56.75 million tons. In accordance with government guidelines, sow farming was reduced in order to stabilize prices at a cost-covering level. With current prices of around €3/kg, the first signs of success can already be seen. Cheap imports of 1.5 million tons of cuts are expected to cover consumption of 58.15 million tons. The times of earlier import volumes of 5 million tons with an impact on world market prices are a thing of the past.
For the EU-27, the USDA is forecasting an increase of +1.7% to 21.15 million tons. EU consumption is estimated to increase slightly to 18.1 million tons. Exports remain little changed at 3.15 million tons. Prices for the 2nd half of 2024 tend to be weak.
The USA expects a strong increase in production of +3.1% to 12.77 million tons compared to the previous year. However, domestic consumption is expected to increase only slightly (+0.2%) to 10 million tons. As a result, exports will rise by around 6.3% to 3.3 million tons, with a particular focus on Mexico. On the Chicago Stock Exchange, prices for the fall/winter months are expected to fall from € 1.80 to less than € 1.60/kg.
AlthoughBrazil remains on course for expansion with production of 4.56 million tons, the higher expectations previously held are not being met. Among other things, the floods in the south-east of the country have led to adverse effects. Domestic consumption also increases slightly to 3.14 million tons. However, pork exports increase to 1.42 million tons. The current price level is between €1.50 and €1.65/kg.
Canada's pig production continues to decline slightly to 2.05 million tons. Of this, a slightly increasing 1.4 million tons are exported.
