USDA expects lower pork production in major production areas
In its latest quarterly edition Oct-2024, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates a -0.8% reduction in pork production in 2025 in major countries around the world.
In China, the world's largest producer country with a 48% share, pork production is set to fall by a further -2.2% compared to the previous year. The background to this is the government's target of a sow herd of between 39 and 40 million sows. Chinese consumption is estimated at a reduced 56.8 million tons. This results in an import requirement of around 1.4 million tons. At the peak of the ASF epidemic in 2020, 5.3 million tons of imports were required. Domestic production should remain well below 100% in order to stabilize pig prices at a cost-covering level.
In the second-largest production area in the EU-27, with a share of 18%, the USDA expects the volume of pork in 2025 to be -1.65% lower than in the previous year at just under 21 million tons. Consumption is expected to fall to just 18 million tons. EU exports are estimated at just under 3 million tons.
The USA is in third place with a +2.2 % increase in production to 12.9 million tons. Domestic consumption is estimated to increase slightly to 10.1 million tons. On the import side, trade foresees imports of 0.55 million tons, mainly from Canada, while exports are expected to increase slightly to 3.35 million tons. Rising deliveries to Mexico will play a key role in this.
In 4th place, Brazil continues to make progress with 4.55 million tons (+1.55%). At just over 3 million tons, the country's own consumption is developing much more slowly. As in previous years, export volumes are therefore expected to rise to around 1.5 million tons. The sales regions are broadly diversified with a focus on the Asian region.
Russia is expected to increase its pork production to just under 4.3 million tons. This should cover both rising consumption and the expected increase in exports. However, the increase in exports to China has so far only been achieved to a limited extent. This is currently slowing down the Russian price trend.
Canada's pork production has been stagnating for several years at just over 2.1 million tons, of which around 1.4 million tons are exported on an increasing scale.
The UK is increasingly coming under the spotlight of exporting countries because the UK's level of self-sufficiency has fallen from around 65% to 58% in the last 5 years. Net imports of currently 0.5 million tons are increasing annually, but are still being held back by reduced export volumes.
