25.
08.23
Prices are under pressure

Kartoffeln News, 08/25/2023

Bullish
  • lower earnings expectations
  • late harvest
  • quality issues
Bearish
  • harvest pressure
  • Frit factories have closed many pre-contracts
  • The start of the main harvest draws near
International listings €/german
country listing variety previous week Current the change
Netherlands PotatoNL Cat.1 45.00-50.00 25.00-35.00 -12.50
Belgium Belgapom early 40.00 17.50 -22.50
France RNM Fountain nn nn nn
Germany Reka innovator 32.00 20.00 -12.00

The harvesting work is progressing and so more and more goods are available in both the food and the processing market. Table potatoes are still scarce in most regions, but in the north work is progressing well and growers are offering their lots. At the same time, many non-skin-hard potatoes are coming onto the market at high prices in order to benefit from the current price situation. Overall, market participants expect price reductions in small steps in the coming days. Overall, however, price pressure is increasing. Food retailers and packers in particular are putting increasing pressure on the price structure. In the south, the demand for ware potatoes is still below average due to the heat. In the case of processing potatoes, the increasing quantities being taken from the soil are putting pressure on the price structure. In Belgium, the factories made provisions in the spring and secured larger quantities through contracts. Trade in early varieties is therefore low, and the factories are well supplied with varieties such as Amora and Zorba. The supply is already pressing in Belgium and so currently around 20 euros/dt are paid for free goods, in the previous week it was still up to 35 euros/dt.It is questionable how long this pressure will last. Test clearings in Wallonia and Flanders have shown that the harvests are likely to be very heterogeneous, but will mostly be below the average of recent years. Yields could be up to 6 t/ha lower than in the previous year. There is hardly any trade in free goods in France either. Here, too, factories are primarily using contracts and the prices for early processing potatoes have slipped from about 50 euros from a good two to three weeks ago to around 30 euros/dt now. Average yields are expected in France, however, and farmers are optimistic, particularly in the country's more northerly growing areas. The Reka also corrected its listing downwards today. 18-19 euros/dt are now reported for early fries, compared to 30-32 euros/dt in the previous week. With low turnover volumes, the April 24 contract on the EEX is trending lower today. Most recently, 27.30 euros/dt were traded, closing price yesterday was still 28.50 euros.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Prices are now under pressure. It shows a classic harvest print. The further course of the season will be exciting, because the yields are likely to be lower than many had expected.

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