17.
01.24
Derivatives market weaker - rising international prices

Milch News, 01/17/2024

Bullish
  • rising international price levels
  • Euro slightly weaker again
  • high demand for cheese with low stocks
Bearish
  • Milk quantity development
  • lack of international competitiveness
  • weak demand powder
Quotation results dairy products Germany:
Skimmed milk powder (food grade), €/t
01/17/21 2,500 until 2,650
10/10/21 2,500 until 2.650
Branded butter (shaped 250 g), €/kg
01/17/21 5.80 until 5.94
10/10/21 5.80 until 6.13
Block butter (loose, 25 kg)
01/17/21 5.44 until 5.55
10/10/21 5.48 until 5.50
Gouda/Edamer , block (48%/45%/40% fat i.tr.), €/kg
01/17/21 4.00 until 4.20
10/10/21 3.95 until 4.15

As is typical of the season, the amount of milk continues to increase. In the first calendar week of the new year, around 1.3 percent more raw materials were collected from dairies compared to the previous week. The raw material markets are in stable condition. Skimmed milk concentrate is in high demand again and can also increase in price. Rahm continues his stable development. Spot market milk is given by the ife Institute as a federal average of 35.9 cents/kg, which is 0.1 cent firmer compared to the previous week. In the European environment, however, prices tend to be inconsistent overall. Demand for molded butter remains high and has increased slightly again. The quantities ordered are increasing significantly. Promotions in the food retail sector have kept demand at a high level despite the usual seasonal weakness in demand. However, the prices were somewhat weaker. However, after the price increase last week, the South German Butter and Cheese Exchange reduced the trading range again yesterday. Consumers continue to pay 1.69 euros for the 250 gram packet. In December, average consumer prices were still 1.59 euros.The recently weak demand for block butter has picked up somewhat. More and more market participants are active again and are asking for goods. In some cases, firmer prices can also be negotiated. Overall, block butter tends to be inconsistent, which is also reflected in yesterday's listing on the Butter and Cheese Exchange in Kempten. At the lower end of the trading range, the price was reduced by 4 cents; at the upper end, 5 cents more could be quoted. Rising butter prices were reflected in the Global Dairy Trade Tender in New Zealand. Prices here rose by 5.9%, which also narrowed the price gap to the recently higher European prices. More contracts are being traded again on the EEX. The front contracts have recently shown slightly weaker prices. The listing commission in Hanover yesterday increased the trading margin for cheese (block goods) by an average of 5 cents per kilogram. Goods issues continue to be extensive. Food retailers continue to order large quantities of goods. Demand from the food retail sector continues to be above average. Large consumers and industry call up goods to a normal extent.Additional requests cannot always be addressed immediately. It is reported that the first discussions for deliveries will be concluded in March on firmer terms. Despite the lack of delivery days around Christmas and New Year, inventories only grew to a small extent. Manufacturers are also seeing increasing demand from the European environment. The market for skimmed milk powder continued to show a manageable business trend this week. Many buyers do not yet show any short-term need. Discussions about new supply contracts are ongoing, but do not always result in conclusions. Algeria recently purchased large quantities of milk powder in Europe, but there has not yet been any impetus in the export business. Prices are still under pressure, but the reduced range from the previous week was maintained. Slightly more contracts were traded on the EEX than two weeks ago. The prices fell by around 28 euros on average over the week. Skimmed milk powder increased in the Global Dairy Trade Tender in New Zealand, but European products remain hardly competitive internationally.Whole milk powder also continues its quiet business development. The price remained unchanged, with low volumes of demand coming from the European internal market. There is hardly any export business due to the significant price difference to New Zealand. The market development for whey powder continues to be different. The prices increased again and there was good demand for food grades in particular - including for later delivery dates. However, feed qualities are hardly traded.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The fundamentally friendly trend continues. The export business continues to cause problems, but domestic demand for cheese, cream and butter is very good.

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