The seasonal increase in the supply of raw materials there also continued in the last week of January. Compared to the 3rd calendar week, around 0.4% more raw milk was registered in the 4th calendar week. This means that the supply of raw materials in the first month of 2024 is around 1.8 percent lower than in January of the previous year. Spot market milk was traded at a national average of 38.3 cents/kg, 0.7 cents lower than the previous week. With the turn of the month, dairy sales prices have partially fallen. The South German Butter and Cheese Exchange quoted a lower trading range for packaged butter . The number of orders has increased again this week, but overall the molded butter market remains in the normal seasonal pattern. In some cases, additional business transactions are concluded outside of existing contracts. Block butter is also weaker this week. The price was reduced at both the upper and lower ends of the trading range. However, recent price reductions have led to an increase in demand. Buyers primarily ask for short-term deliveries. Discussions for long-term deliveries continue, but often without results. Prices on the EEX increased on a weekly basis. For February to October 2024, prices will again be trading above the current quotation level. Internationally, butter prices rose significantly. In the Global Dairy Trade Tender in New Zealand, butter went north by 10.3%, making European butter significantly more competitive internationally. Supply and demand for semi-hard cheese are balanced. The quotations in Hanover and Kempten were correspondingly unchanged yesterday. Goods are retrieved from food retailers to the agreed extent. The goods issued in the ripening warehouses are above the normal volume level for the beginning of February. The usual orders for goods and outgoing goods can be seen from the industrial sales channel. Large consumers, on the other hand, are currently somewhat more cautious. There are deals in the export business, but orders are manageable due to the high price level in this country and the increased transport costs due to the location on the Red Sea. In the run-up to Chinese New Year and Ramadan in the Arab region, demand from these regions is likely to be further dampened in the coming weeks.
The volumes traded for food-grade skimmed milk powder picked up at the beginning of February. The quantities ordered were above the previous week's level with stable prices. The manufacturers receive inquiries from both the European internal market and exports. However, the latter are still underdeveloped due to Chinese New Year and Ramadan, which is about to begin. Contract prices increased slightly on the EEX, although trading has recently been significantly lower. In the Global Dairy Trade Tender, prices for skimmed milk powder rose by a significant 4.6%. With a converted price of 2,567 euros/t, domestic exporters are more competitive again. However, the high transport costs are problematic due to the critical situation in the Red Sea. Sales of whole milk powder remain modest. The quotation in Kempten was reduced, and prices in the Global Dairy Trade Tender increased by 3.4%, meaning that German whole milk powder remains hardly competitive internationally. Food grade whey powder was traded somewhat more extensively at slightly lower prices. The business activities concentrate on later delivery times.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The bottom line is that the milk market is stable. However, the improved international competitiveness is limited by the high transport costs due to the location on the Red Sea. Consumer demand is decent, but is currently not providing any stimulus.