02.
03.23
Prices tend to be firmer

Milch News, 03/02/2023

Bullish
  • increasing international demand
  • Euro to Dollar Ratio
  • good consumer demand for cheese and butter
Bearish
  • development of milk yield
  • seasonal milk curve development
  • partially restrained demand
Education price index skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
03/01/2023 €2,650 2.€600 €2,580 €2,610 €33
02/22/2023 €2,610 €2,570 €255 €2,577 €60
02/15/2023 €2,550 €2,500 €2,500 2.€517 €94
butter €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
01.03.2023 €4,865 €4,850 €5,050 €4,922 €164
02/22/2023 €4,725 €4,750 €4,800 €4,758 €95
02/15/2023 €4,560 4.€600 €4,850 4.663 € 146 €
        Flüssigmilch       ct/kg
Veröffentlichung Deutschland Niederlande Dänemark Irland Index Änderung
13.02.2023 57.88 62.51 51.45 68.9 62.69 -0.96
01/12/2023 61.58 62.25 61.43 69.34 63.65 0.85

Weekly milk deliveries continue to increase throughout February. Around 3.3 percent more raw milk has been delivered in 2023 compared to the same period last year. On the spot market, the national average price quotation fell by 2.6 cents to 33.3 cents/kg. There is constant demand for cream on the concentrate markets, in particular because butter prices have stabilized again. There is an oversupply of skimmed milk concentrate due to the higher volume of milk, which is why prices are under pressure here. In other EU countries, too, the demand for skimmed milk concentrate is currently subdued. Packaged butter continues to be in great demand. Compared to the previous week, orders have even slightly increased again. According to the expectations of market participants, the Easter business should make itself felt more strongly in mid-March. When listing in Kempten, a kilo price of 4.98 euros to 5.24 euros was still determined for packaged butter. The block butter market is gaining momentum. Deliveries are steady and the dairies continue to receive more inquiries.Inquiries relate to both short-term and delivery dates in the third and fourth quarters of this year. The quotation range was able to increase due to the firmer prices in the manufacturers' accounts. A similar development can also be seen in the Netherlands and France. Here, too, block butter prices rose this week. Prices on the EEX in Leipzig have also been able to stabilize. For delivery contracts from September 2023, prices will again be above the EUR 5,000/t mark. The quotations for semi-hard cheese remain stable compared to the previous week both in Hanover and on the southern German butter and cheese exchange. Manufacturers continue to be satisfied with orders from the food retail trade and business activities via the bulk consumer and industry sales channels are also more lively again. Demand for exports is also increasing, with more and more deals being made for deliveries from southern Europe in particular. Increased trading activities and talks are also being established with customers in Eastern Europe and the USA as well as in Asia. The ripening stocks are currently being rejuvenated due to the higher milk supply.Stocks are below average. The demand for food-grade skimmed milk powder has decreased again somewhat. This applies both to demand from the EU internal market and from the export business. Nevertheless, business transactions are concluded and relate primarily to deliveries in the next three months; later delivery dates are only occasionally negotiated. The listing on the southern German butter and cheese exchange was able to increase again and the contracts are also being traded more firmly on the EEX. Specifically, September 2023 and later contracts are trading in a range above the current spot market trading range. The listings for animal feed grades have also stabilized, although the business trend here is still somewhat calmer than for skimmed milk powder in food grade quality. Whey powder is still widely available because of the higher cheese production. However, demand is quite satisfactory, and prices are trending sideways. Demands and business deals are also increasing again from the Asian region.Whole milk powder continues to be traded calmly. Business activities focus primarily on deliveries within the European Union. Occasionally, however, there are also talks with buyers from third countries. The price quotation in Kempten was continued unchanged from the previous week with a trading range of EUR 3,500 to EUR 3,580 per ton. This means that whole milk powder is slightly weaker in February than in January. Compared to the average listings from February 2022, whole milk powder is currently valued significantly lower. The stock market milk values traded are slightly above the level of the previous week.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The hoped-for bottoming out is becoming more and more apparent. The prices for skimmed milk powder and butter have been rising again for three weeks now and prices are also trading more firmly on the EEX. Only the cheese quotations and whey powder are still stuck at the level achieved in the previous week. Overall, there are signs that the milk market will be significantly weaker than in 2022, but many producers and market participants should breathe a sigh of relief that the price decline has stopped.

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