23.
03.23
In many cases there is no clear trend

Milch News, 03/23/2023

Bullish
  • Consumer demand for cheese and butter
  • international competitiveness partially restored
  • slight increase in export demand for cheese
Bearish
  • Milk volume above previous year
  • milk yield development
  • good availability of powder and butter
  • wait-and-see attitude product buyers
Education price index skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
03/22/2023 2.€580 €2,460 €2,440 €2,493 -€90
03/15/2023 €2,630 €2,480 €2,640 €2,583 -37 €
03/08/2023 €2,650 €2,600 2.€610 €2,620 €10
butter €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
2203.2023 €4,750 €4,800 €5,000 €4,850 €53
03/15/2023 €4,750 €4,800 €4,840 €4,797 €40
03/08/2023 €4,650 4.€800 €4,820 4.€757 -€157
liquid milk cents/kg
publication Germany Netherlands Denmark Ireland index the change
13.03.2023 58.65 60.00 60.36 67.58 61.65 -1.04
02/13/2023 57.88 62.51 51.45 68.9 62.69 -0.96

The quantities of raw milk delivered are stagnating. Compared to the previous week, 0.1% more milk was delivered in the 10th calendar week of the year. The lead over the previous year is still high at 3.2 percent. However, there is evidence of more lively demand on the commodity markets. There is increasing demand for industrial cream and there are also indications of higher demand for skimmed milk concentrate, while at the same time there is a very good supply. The listing on the spot market rose by 1.1 cents to 29.5 cents/kg compared to the previous week. The listing for formed butter on the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten has not changed, and consumer prices for the 250-gram packet are also stable at EUR 1.49. Dairies expect higher demand for butter for the upcoming Easter, but demand and orders are still stable at the level increased in the previous week. There is a lack of impetus in the market for block butter . Prices are trending sideways here. There are increasing talks for deliveries in the third and fourth quarters, but only a few deals are made. In most cases, buyers and sellers are too far apart.On the EEX, the butter contracts tend to be somewhat weaker on a weekly basis, especially in the second half of the year, but are still above the current spot market level. Turnover on the futures exchange in Leipzig has recently been somewhat higher again. Internationally, butter is down 3 percent in the Global Dairy Trade Tender in New Zealand. Converted, the quotation here is 4,406 euros/t. While the listings for Emmentaler in Kempten remain unchanged, the listing commission in Hanover has increased the trading range for block goods Gouda/Edam by 10 cents at the lower end. Bread products, on the other hand, are down by 10 cents/kg at the top end. The orders from the food retail trade remain constant at a good and satisfactory level. With regard to additional inquiries from the forthcoming Easter business, however, the additional inquiries are falling short of dealers' expectations. At the agreed level, the call-offs in the sales channels bulk consumers and industry are running, but there are currently no new impetus due to different price expectations for later deliveries. The export business continues to gain momentum, albeit slowly.Most recently, buyers from Greece and Italy in particular have increasingly ordered goods in Germany in order to prepare for the upcoming travel season. The ripening camps are currently described as below average and young. Things have calmed down on the market for skimmed milk powder . Demand for both animal feed and food-grade powder is cautious and wait-and-see. However, lower prices this week have led to a slight revival in demand for short-term needs. The availability of goods is still extremely good, it seems that the dairies are increasingly directing the higher milk volumes into the production of block butter and skimmed milk powder. On the EEX, there were price losses, albeit slight ones, for the contracts traded in the short and long term. The second Global Dairy Trade Tender in March also showed weaker tendencies. Skimmed milk powder fell 3.5 percent in New Zealand. Incidentally, whole milk powder gave way at the tender. This fell by 1.5 percent compared to the last auction in early March.There is restrained demand on the local markets, and business deals are concluded when they come about in the environment of the European food industry. There are no uniform price trends. Yesterday, the butter and cheese exchange lowered the trading range by 30 euros at the lower end and at the same time increased the trading range at the upper end by 30 euros to 3,440 - 3,580 euros/t. The business transactions for whey powder have also weakened in terms of volume, and in terms of prices there has recently been a lack of a clear trend in one direction or the other.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

There is currently no clear trend. There is much to suggest that dairy markets are still bottoming out. The stock market has recently been swinging back and forth between the current cash market level and a slightly higher price level. The basic payout prices of the dairies are also likely to experience downward corrections in the coming months.

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