06.
04.23
Quiet market during Holy Week

Milch News, 04/06/2023

Bullish
  • Domestic prices internationally (partly) competitive again
  • Cheese orders LEH and GM
  • good consumer demand
Bearish
  • milk yield development
  • Milk volume above previous year
  • falling international prices
  • Ramadan reduces export demand
Education price index skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
0504.2023 €2,480 €2,350 €2,300 €2,377 -€103
03/29/2023 €2,540 €2,410 €2,490 2.€480 -€13
03/22/2023 €2,580 €2,460 €2,440 2.€493 -€90
butter €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
0504.2023 €4,600 €4,700 €4,780 €4,693 -€180
03/29/2023 €4,700 €4,750 €5,170 4.€873 €23
03/22/2023 €4,750 €4,800 €5,000 4.€850 €53
liquid milk cents/kg
publication Germany Netherlands Denmark Ireland index the change
13.03.2023 58.65 60.00 60.36 67.58 61.65 -1.04
02/13/2023 57.88 62.51 51.45 68.9 62.69 -0.96

In the 12th calendar week, too, the recorded milk quantity increased again. Compared to the previous week, around 0.4 percent more was delivered to the local dairies. Compared to the 12th calendar week of the previous year, this corresponds to an increase of 2.7%. The same period last year from the first to the twelfth calendar week is exceeded by 3%. The demand for cream and skimmed milk concentrate calmed down significantly during Holy Week. In addition, more raw materials are available, which is why prices have fallen. The spot market price fell by 1.9 cents to 27.5 cents/kg. On the butter market, little has changed in terms of basic market activity. The shaped butter prices remain constant and consumers continue to ask for 1.49 euros for the 250 gram packet. Demand was brisk in the past week, and there were occasional offer prices in food retail that boosted demand. Block butter, on the other hand, is only traded occasionally. New business deals come about when prices fall. Accordingly, the southern German butter and cheese exchange in Kempten lowered its listing for block butter by 10 cents to 4.50 to 4.70 euros yesterday.Lower prices are also being reported from the Netherlands and France, which is why the EEX index for block butter has fallen significantly by EUR 180 per ton this week. Butter prices in the Global Dairy Trade Tender also fell repeatedly. Compared to the last auction, butter lost 3.3%. Due to the Easter holidays, the semi-hard cheese market is lively. In particular, there were increased calls from the food retail trade. But bulk consumers also asked for more goods. Here, however, there are definitely price discussions. At the turn of the month, the export quantities decreased somewhat in terms of quantity. When the price was determined by the listing commission in Hanover, a trading margin of 5 cents per kilogram was higher for block goods, while bread products remained unchanged. The prices on the butter and cheese exchange remain stable. Good demand is reported here, particularly for Emmental cheese. Cheddar was up 3.8% at the New Zealand auction. Skimmed milk powder remains impetus. The listings in Kempten were lowered again and prices for skimmed milk powder are also lower on the EEX in a weekly comparison.In particular, the front appointments gave way here. The settlement rates from September 2023 indicate a market expectation that is above the current spot market level. Both in the domestic market and in export, the demand for powder is low. Many trading participants are also on vacation and have covered their needs around the holidays sufficiently in advance. In exports, many participants are expecting demand to pick up again after the end of Ramadan. In the Global Dairy Trade Tender, the Skimmed Milk Powder Index fell 2.5%. European goods thus remain just about competitive. Animal feed qualities were also hardly in demand and prices fell when there was sufficient supply. Whey powder powder is currently also very quietly in demand. Here, too, many market participants are in the Easter holidays and have covered their needs accordingly. If goods were traded, then at lower prices. Prices have fallen accordingly by EUR 40 at the lower end and EUR 20 at the upper end of the trading range to between EUR 780 and EUR 900/t. Whole milk powder is also characterized by little business activity. There was little willingness to buy from the domestic market and the quantities and demands are also manageable in third-country business.Internationally, prices from the Global Dairy Trade Tender in New Zealand also fell. The whole milk powder price fell by 5.2% to the equivalent of 2,801 euros/t. In Germany, the trading range is 3,420-3,500 euros. This means that domestic goods are still not competitive on the world market.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

During Holy Week, the milk markets are calm and prices are weaker, with the exception of cheese. Dairies continue to lower their base payout prices. A basic payment price of 43.10 cents/kg is reported for DMK for the month of March. Here, too, there are slowly but surely signs of bottoming out, but a further decline in the payout prices cannot be ruled out.

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