20.
04.23
Hoping for asparagus time and high powder stocks

Milch News, 04/20/2023

Bullish
  • international competitiveness for many products
  • still good consumer demand
  • young and declining cheese stocks
Bearish
  • high inventories of skimmed milk powder
  • attractive amount of milk
  • Milk volume above previous year

The amount of milk continues to grow. Compared to the previous week, milk producers in Germany offered their dairies around 0.2 percent more raw milk. In the course of the year to date, the total milk volume has exceeded the same period of the previous year by 3.1 percent. Even if the available quantity of raw milk is still more than sufficient, the concentrate markets were able to show somewhat firmer tendencies. In particular, cream was able to increase, as higher demand for butter is expected at the start of the asparagus season. On the spot market , raw milk was valued at 28.5 cents/kg last week, which is 0.8 cents per kilogram higher. Spot market prices also rose in the Netherlands, while falling sports market trends are reported in Italy. After Easter, the demand for packaged butter calmed down somewhat. However, an increased order quantity from May 1st from the food retail sales channel has already been registered again this week. Overall, however, all sales channels call up less butter than in the same period last year. Market participants are hoping for slight impetus for the asparagus season. Prices remained stable mainly due to closed contracts.Consumer prices are also unchanged at EUR 1.49, but the 250-gram pack can sometimes be purchased for EUR 1.29 as part of special offers. The block butter market continues to be characterized by restrained demand. Discussions about new deliveries and contracts do take place, but the price ideas often differ noticeably. Competition also comes from other European countries, which mostly offer slightly cheaper block butter contracts. However, the trading margin at the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten increased slightly. On the EEX, the listings for the butter delivery dates have recently stabilized somewhat. After three setbacks, the Global Dairy Trade Tender also showed firmer prices again. Stability, on the other hand, characterizes the cheese submarket. Supply and demand are balanced. Overall, however, the market trend calmed down further after Easter. However, sales campaigns and minor price reductions in food retailing have slightly revived consumer demand.Larger quantities of cheese continue to flow to bulk buyers and industrial customers, and there are also increasing numbers of questions about contracts for the third quarter from manufacturers. German dairies are also seeing growing demand, particularly from southern Europe. The stocks in the ripening warehouses are declining slightly. However, the age structure was able to increase again. At the meeting of the listing commission in Hanover, bread goods were raised by 10 cents per kilogram at the lower end. Food-grade skimmed milk powder continues to be characterized by low demand, high inventories and weaker price trends. Sufficient raw materials are available for production and the higher quantity of milk has recently been increasingly channeled into drying. There are repeated reports of impending bottlenecks in storage capacity. Almost 24 percent more powder was produced in the first two months of 2023 than in the first two months of the previous year. Factories offer a wide range of goods, which is why the buyer side continues to wait and see. On average, the listing in yesterday's pricing in Kempten fell by 100 euros/t.Skimmed milk powder, on the other hand, was able to increase by 7 percent in the Global Dairy Trade Tender, which means that European goods continue to be competitive on the international market. At the same time, however, demand from exports is also subdued and falls short of expectations. Whole milk powder is priced unchanged compared to the previous week. The market continues to offer little impetus and the quiet business activities of the previous weeks have continued this week. Internationally, however, whole milk powder prices increased slightly by 1 percent.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

While butter and cheese are at least stable, powder prices are still under pressure. Stocks are too high and demand for skimmed milk powder and whole milk powder is too low. After the raw material value of milk has recently fallen less sharply, milk prices should also bottom out in the near future.

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