26.
04.23
Raw material value milk falls to 36.3 cents/kg

Milch News, 04/26/2023

Bullish
  • international competitiveness for many products
  • good consumer demand for cheese
  • beginning holiday season supports export demand
Bearish
  • milk yield development
  • Milk volume above previous year
  • high inventories of block butter and cheese

As is typical for the season, raw milk deliveries in Germany continue to increase. In the 15th calendar week, around 0.2% more raw milk was served than in the previous week. The previous year's total line is exceeded by 3 percent. Sports market milk falls by 0.4 cents/kg to 28.1 cents/kg, on the other hand, somewhat firmer prices can be reported in the Netherlands, for example. The concentrate markets are once again more impressed by the high milk volumes and are softening accordingly. The Kiel raw material value milk for April was calculated by the ife Institute at 36.3 cents/kg. That is 2.3 cents less than in March and 31.2 cents or 46.2% less than in April 2022. At that time, the raw material value had reached an absolute price high of 67.5 cents/kg. Overall, the butter market is waiting for momentum. Demand for packaged butter has continued to pick up somewhat, but has largely fallen short of retailers' expectations. The start of the asparagus season is also a long time coming, so that no significant change is expected for the time being. The price listing in Kempten as well as the consumer prices are stable this week.In the short term, block butter is in demand a little more than it was a week ago, but since there are more than enough goods available, there are no price impulses here. Longer-term deliveries are currently far less in demand, since the asking prices are usually far apart. The end of Ramadan is not noticeable in the long term, but there are reports of increasing demand from the Middle East. The prices on the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten were slightly reduced to 4.52 to 4.70 euros/kg (previous week 4.60 to 4.75 euros/kg). With low turnover, the futures exchange EEX showed firmer prices for the front dates on a weekly basis. The cheese market is stable. The listings in Hanover and Kempten remain unchanged in yesterday's price determinations. The activities on the physical market are described as brisk. Cheese production has increased, but consumers are buying more semi-hard cheese compared to April 2022. A revival in demand could now also bring the reduced consumer prices in the food retail sector.Bulk consumers and industrial customers appear to be largely covered and call off goods continuously, new deals are occasionally made. Exports to southern Europe are once again doing somewhat better. Hotels and restaurateurs are stocking up for the coming holiday season, and there are currently fewer dairy products available in southern Europe due to the high temperatures. The ripe stocks are rated as stable to slightly lower. The increased cheese production goes hand in hand with the sometimes extensive outgoing goods. The price quotations for skimmed milk powder are updated unchanged compared to the previous week. The hope that demand from the Arab countries will pick up when Ramadan ends has not yet materialised. China buys volumes in Europe, but traders would have expected higher demand. Business on the European domestic market is sluggish, and the high inventories sometimes put manufacturers under pressure to sell. The majority of transactions are focused on short-term deliveries, and price concessions often have to be made. Powder prices have recently been somewhat firmer on the EEX.Trading activities are more extensive on the futures exchange compared to butter. Business with feed-grade skimmed milk powder continues to be subdued, with prices falling by an average of 40 euros per tonne. Meanwhile, transactions involving whole milk powder are increasing in the European food industry. For long-term transactions, sometimes firmer prices can also be agreed, but for short-term deliveries high inventories put pressure on the price structure. There is little interest in whey powder this week either, but there are reports of a slightly increased interest in long-term delivery dates.

Listing results milk products Germany:
Skimmed milk powder (food grade), €/t
04/26/23 2,250 until 2450
04/1923 2,250 until 2450
Branded butter (moulded 250 g), €/kg
04/26/23 4.88 until 5.06
04/1923 4.88 until 5.06
Emmental and square hard cheese (45% fat in dry matter), €/kg
04/26/23 5.80 until 7.05
04/1923 5.80 until 7.05
Gouda/Edam , block (48%/45%/40% fat in dry matter), €/kg
04/26/23 3.40 until 3.60
04/19/23 3.40 until 3.60
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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The milk market as a whole is currently lacking momentum. After the end of Ramadan, the importers from the affected countries are not yet active again on the European market and powder purchases from the Middle Kingdom fall short of expectations. The asparagus season hasn't really started yet and at the same time the milk volume continues to increase.

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