11.
05.23
Traded more skimmed milk powder again

Milch News, 05/11/2023

Bullish
  • increased demand for cheese
  • first impulses asparagus season
  • international competitiveness partially given
  • increasing export demand Asia
Bearish
  • Milk volume significantly above previous year
  • milk yield development
  • high inventories of butter and powder
Listing results milk products Germany:
Skimmed milk powder (food grade), €/t
05/10/23 2,300 until 2,480
05/03/23 2,270 until 2.480
Branded butter (moulded 250 g), €/kg
05/10/23 4.84 until 5.00
05/03/23 4.88 until 5.06
Emmental and square hard cheese (45% fat in dry matter), €/kg
05/10/23 5.60 until 7.05
05/03/23 5.80 until 7.05
Gouda/Edam , block (48%/45%/40% fat in dry matter), €/kg
05/10/23 3.40 until 3.60
05/03/23 3.40 until 3.60

The milk volume in Germany continues to increase. In the 17th calendar week, around 0.3 percent more raw milk was delivered compared to the previous week. For all 17 calendar weeks in 2023, around 3 percent more raw milk was produced than in 2022. The supply situation on the concentrate markets continues to be more than sufficient to meet demand. However, the prices for conventional cream were able to become somewhat more stable again. Skimmed milk concentrate is also stable to slightly firmer. While there are weaker spot market prices in the Netherlands and Italy, spot market milk in Germany was able to increase again and is quoted at 25.9 cents/kg on average, 0.7 cents higher than in the previous week. Butter is in slightly greater demand from consumers again. The slowly starting asparagus season seems to increase the demand. The recently somewhat lower sales prices of the local dairies are reflected in yesterday's listing on the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten. The listing was slightly withdrawn accordingly. The 250 gram pack currently costs 1.45 euros from the shop counter.This means that consumer prices have fallen by 84 cents per packet compared to the price of a year ago. On the block butter market, business was quiet in the second week of May as well. The milk supply, which is still increasing, means that buyers are acting cautiously. New deals are being made for short-term deliveries, but the extensive range of goods on the market is causing prices to return to the upper end of the trading range. Sustainable impulses from the export business are still not coming. Compared to our last market report on Monday, butter prices on the EEX have developed somewhat more firmly. The consumer prices for cheese , which were reduced again at the beginning of May, ensure a further revival in demand for cheese. The orders from the food retail sales channel are extensive, and the upcoming public holidays are also causing a slightly higher demand for semi-hard cheese. In the direction of bulk consumers and industry, business activities corresponded to the expectations of market participants. On the other hand, the demand from the southern European holiday regions developed somewhat inconsistently.In most cases, a little less cheese will be called up from these destinations than before from the German dairies. Production is still extensive because of the higher milk volume, but at the same time the stocks in the maturing warehouses are reduced because of the good demand. Dairy sales prices are stable or marginally weaker. Although the demand for skimmed milk powder is still volatile, a slight revival of the market could be observed at the beginning of May. Slight impetus is coming in particular from the export business to Asia. There are also reports of more lively demand from Arab countries. In the domestic market, new deals continue to focus on short-term delivery dates, but here and there later deliveries are also being concluded. The average prices for food grades increased slightly. In the course of this week, prices on the EEX are slightly weaker, especially in the early dates, while the later dates tend sideways and are also slightly weaker. Business activities and listings for feed grade skimmed milk powder continue to stagnate.Whole milk powder is still characterized by a manageable business development, but prices at the lower end increased by 40 euros and at the upper end by 80 euros per ton to 3,400 to 3,580 euros/t. The quantities traded for whey powder are also more extensive. Short-term needs in particular are currently being met, and prices are increasing slightly.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

There is no indication of a very clear direction on the milk market. Most of the submarkets are stabilizing. However, the high volume of milk and the associated high stocks of butter and milk powder prevent a price increase. Overall, the milk market continues to move sideways. It remains to be seen whether the more lively export business and the improved demand for butter due to the asparagus season will provide lasting impetus. The opportunities are there, but they are not great.

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