17.
05.23
Shortly before milk peak

Milch News, 05/17/2023

Bullish
  • Milk volume above previous year
  • high product availability powder
  • milk yield development
Bearish
  • export demand picking up cheese and butter
  • European goods competitive again
  • coffin season
Listing results milk products Germany:
Skimmed milk powder (food grade), €/t
05/10/23 2,300 until 2480
05/03/23 2,300 until 2480
Branded butter (moulded 250 g), €/kg
10.05.23 4.80 until 5.06
05/03/23 4.88 until 5.00
Emmental and square hard cheese (45% fat in dry matter), €/kg
05/10/23 5.60 until 7.05
05/03/23 5.80 until 7.05
Gouda/Edam , block (48%/45%/40% fat in dry matter), €/kg
05/10/23 3.40 until 3.60
05/03/23 3.40 until 3.60

Milk deliveries in Germany are approaching their seasonal high. According to provisional calculations, around 0.2% more milk was delivered to the dairies in week 18 than in the previous week. Around 2.9 percent more milk was produced compared to the previous year as a whole. The spot market prices increased by 1.2 cents to 27.1 cents/kg. The concentrate markets are also showing firmer mid-May. Because of the current asparagus season, there is an impetus in the demand for packaged butter . Orders from the food retail sales channel are increasing and the public holidays this week and the week after next mean that retailers are ordering more goods to meet the expected higher consumer demand. The trading range at today's listing in Kempten has increased. 4 cents less were recorded at the lower end, and 6 cents more at the upper end. The block butter market, on the other hand, is rather subdued. New business is slow to come about, short-term delivery dates are in greater demand than contracts for the second half of the year. The manufacturers, on the other hand, were able to place a little more on the world market.The current price level is competitive and so international demand is picking up slightly. In the Global Dairy Trade Tender, butter rose by 2.2% to the equivalent of 4,658 euros/t. Trading volumes on the EEX have picked up somewhat, prices are tending to be somewhat firmer than in the previous week. Prices for semi-hard cheese remain stable. The food retail trade is calling up a large number of goods from the factories, and the reduced consumer prices at the beginning of the month have obviously led to more lively consumer demand. No impetus comes from the areas of large consumers and industrial customers. In the export business, the destinations are developing differently, but overall the quantities are developing consistently. Cheese production is still above average because the dairies have more milk available, but due to the overall high outflow of goods, the cheese manufacturers were not able to meet every additional delivery request at short notice. Ripening stocks are still below average for this time of year and relatively young. The friendlier market trend for skimmed milk powder continued this week.The number of inquiries has continued to improve, in particular more supply contracts are being concluded with customers from the European food industry. However, the export business outside the European Union lags behind expectations. The price listing on the southern German butter and cheese exchange in Kempten improved again compared to the previous week, although it is reported that stock goods are offered at slightly lower prices, while fresh goods can achieve higher prices. More contracts were traded on the EEX, prices tended to be slightly firmer on a weekly basis. There is no change in price for whole milk powder , but the quantities traded have increased again somewhat. New contracts are mainly concluded with European industrial customers. On the other hand, there is hardly any business outside of Europe. Whole milk powder gained some ground in the Global Dairy Trade Tender, but European prices are still uncompetitive. Whey powder is also traded more briskly. The price level has increased recently. A large amount of whey is still available to the plants.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The sub-markets are showing further signs of recovery, but the high volume of milk is still holding back real price premiums. The asparagus season and the reduced consumer prices for molded butter and semi-hard cheese ensure good orders from the food retail trade, bulk consumers are mostly still reluctant, especially for longer appointments. In the short term, the market is trending sideways.

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