08.
06.23
Brisk demand for formed butter - powder markets quiet

Milch News, 06/08/2023

Bullish
  • milk peak reached
  • international competitiveness
  • brisk consumer demand due to asparagus and barbecue season
  • Euro/dollar ratio
Bearish
  • Milk volume significantly above previous year
  • weak demand China
  • high inventories of butter and powder
Education price index skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
07.06.2023 €2,500 €2,500 €2,520 €2,507 €24
05/31/2023 €2,500 €2,480 €2,470 €2,483 €45
05/24/2023 €2,445 2.€440 €2,430 2.€438 €40
butter €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
07.06.2023 €4,675 €4,780 €4,960 €4,805 €52
05/31/2023 €4,650 €4,730 €4,880 €4,753 €101
05/24/2023 €4,625 4.€680 €4,650 4.652 € -3 €
        Flüssigmilch       ct/kg
Veröffentlichung Deutschland Niederlande Dänemark Irland Index Änderung
12.05.2023 49.76 50.50 53.32 47.68 50.32 -5.13
04/12/2023 54.07 56.00 57.36 54.38 55.45 -6.20

As the preliminary calculations show, the seasonal peak in raw milk production has passed. In the 21st calendar week, around 0.2 percent less raw milk was delivered to the dairies than in the previous week. Around 1.9 percent more milk was recorded compared to the 21st calendar week of 2022. For the year as a whole, around 2.7 percent more raw materials were available for processing than in the previous year. The concentrate markets are showing a somewhat calmer market development with stabilizing prices. Liquid skimmed milk is currently not in demand, as they say. On the spot market, prices are also tending to firm. For the 22nd calendar week, the ife Institute determined a price of 33.1 cents/kg and thus 1.3 cents/kg more than a week ago. The discounter Aldi has announced that it will permanently reduce the prices for 50 dairy products. For example, the liter of whole milk in the private label is to be adjusted from 1.15 euros to a liter price of 0.99 euros. The butter market is also divided into two at the beginning of June. Sales of molded butter continue to be high and satisfactory.Lower consumer prices and the asparagus and barbecue season are boosting consumer purchase volumes. On average across Germany, they pay 1.45 euros for a 250 gram packet of branded butter. Block butter shows a stable development with subdued trading activities. Discussions for the third and fourth quarter only result in isolated business deals. On the other hand, demand from abroad has increased again somewhat. The price quotations in Kempten are stable this week. Butter prices rose again at the Global Diary Trade Tender in New Zealand. Converted, butter is quoted here at EUR 4,763 per tonne, which is 0.5% higher than in the previous auction two weeks ago. Trading volumes on the EEX have recently increased, with prices tending to be firmer than in the previous week. Demand for semi-hard cheese remains brisk. In the food retail sector, the demand for the lower consumer prices has picked up again noticeably, manufacturers and dairies are very satisfied with the sales. In the export business to the southern European holiday regions, deals are constantly being made, and demand here has continued to pick up.Since the milk volumes are declining again and the outgoing goods are extensive, the stocks in the ripening warehouses continue to decrease. Inventory is described as below average. The listings on the southern German butter and cheese exchange in Kempten were firmer again for Emmental and the listing commission in Hanover also determined a slightly higher trading range for block goods. Bread products are updated unchanged from the previous week at 3.75 euros to 3.90 euros/kg. The powder markets are currently lacking momentum overall. However, prices were able to stabilize further, and talks about deliveries sometimes lead to new business. The traders of skimmed milk powder continue to be disappointed by the weak demand from China, which clearly falls short of exporters' expectations. Skimmed milk powder is traded more firmly again on the EEX in a weekly comparison. For the contracts from September, the traded prices are now again above the current spot market level. Skimmed milk powder in animal feed quality is unchanged in price. Demand for animal feed products continues to be subdued and manageable.In the case of whole milk powder, calls are made continuously to the agreed extent, and new contracts are only rarely made. There are still no inquiries from third countries. At the Global Diary Trade Tender in New Zealand, whole milk powder fell by 3 percent, meaning that German and European powders are not internationally competitive. In the case of whey powder, on the other hand, the manufacturers receive inquiries from both the domestic market and third countries. Above all, short-term delivery dates are in demand. Prices tend to be inconsistent, which is why the butter and cheese exchange has widened the trading range at both the high and low end.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The milk market as a whole has continued to stabilise. The raw material value of milk rose again at the end of May, albeit only slightly, and the trading activities on the EEX show that many market participants are expecting a firmer price structure for butter and skimmed milk powder.

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