22.
06.23
The powder markets lack momentum

Milch News, 06/22/2023

Bullish
  • declining milk deliveries
  • international competitiveness
  • low cheese stocks with high demand
Bearish
  • Milk volume significantly above previous year
  • High inventories of block butter and powder
  • Demand dip expected over holiday season
Listing results milk products Germany:
Skimmed milk powder (food grade), €/t
06/21/23 2,450 until 2600
04.06.23 2,400 until 2600
Branded butter (moulded 250 g), €/kg
06/21/23 4.80 until 5.00
04.06.23 4.80 until 5:16
Emmental and square hard cheese (45% fat in dry matter), €/kg
06/21/23 5.55 until 6.95
04.06.23 5.35 until 7.20
Gouda/Edam , block (48%/45%/40% fat in dry matter), €/kg
06/21/23 3.50 until 3.70
06/04/23 3.50 until 3.70

The amount of milk delivered will also decrease in the further course of June. Compared to the 22nd calendar week, around 0.5% less raw milk was delivered to the German dairies in the 23rd calendar week. As a result, the previous full-year lead fell slightly to 2.6%. The drop in milk deliveries is reflected in firmer prices on the commodity markets. Spot market milk was traded 1.7 cents/kg higher at 37.2 cents/kg. Only in the Netherlands did spot market prices fall by 1.4%. Both conventional cream and skimmed milk concentrate were able to increase in price by 1 cent/kg compared to the previous week. Demand for formed butter is somewhat weaker than it was a week ago. Calls from the food retail trade have decreased. The reason for this are the holidays that are now beginning in the first federal states. In line with the lower demand, the listings on the southern German butter and cheese exchange went down. At the upper end of the price range, 0.16 euros/kg less was recorded. Consumer prices remain stable at EUR 1.45 per 250 grams.On the other hand, the demand for block butter is providing slight impetus again. Although the demand is still not overwhelming, the number and the quantities demanded have recovered. In particular, deliveries for the last quarter of the year were the focus of discussions, but buyers and sellers often differ in terms of price. The export business remains subdued. The price quotations could be raised slightly. The block butter prices on the EEX futures exchange developed differently. With quite remarkable turnover, the contract prices tend to be somewhat weaker up to the month of February than in the previous week. Butter has increased in the international market. The Global Dairy Trade Tender in New Zealand went north by 5.5% to a converted price of 4,920 euros/t, which means that the European product remains competitive in the trade with third-seed crops. Sales at the cheese market are still extensive. Consumer demand continues to be very high, and industry and large-scale consumers are also showing needs and requesting corresponding quantities. The beer garden season in particular stabilizes demand here.With the onset of vacation time due to the beginning of the holidays, buyers in the holiday regions of southern Europe are also willing to shop. The declining milk supply is reflected in the production, with the extensive goods issues the stocks are falling. In some cases, new requests cannot be served, as it is said. The listing commission in Hanover continued the listing at the higher level of the previous week for block goods, and the price of bread goods also remained stable. However, as in the previous week, the powder market is lacking in momentum. The course of business for skimmed milk powder is described as calm, as is demand. Because the holiday season is now beginning, a rapid revival in demand is not expected. Short-term deliveries are still being reconcluded here and there. For later dates, buyers continue to show a wait-and-see attitude. There is also no impetus from exports, and market participants had hoped for more from demand from China in particular. However, the price range in yesterday's listing was able to improve slightly at the lower end. Powder was traded more extensively on the EEX than in the previous week.The prices are a little weaker again on a weekly basis. Skimmed milk powder also fell in the Global Dairy Trade Tender and fell by 2.3% to the equivalent of 2,439 euros/t. However, this does not limit the competitiveness of European goods. Whole milk powder is unchanged. The course of business is still calm and deals are primarily focused on short-term deliveries within the European domestic market. Prices remained stable at the previous week's level at EUR 3,420 to 3,600 per ton. Demand for whey powder was a little weaker recently and the prices also fell yesterday.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The milk market is showing the first signs of the beginning of the holiday season. The holiday regions call on large quantities of cheese from German factories, while at the same time food retailers are ordering less molded butter. The sub-segments are developing inconsistently, but overall there are still signs of stability.

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