06.
07.23
Dairy herd in Germany is falling

Milch News, 07/06/2023

Bullish
  • declining dairy herd
  • declining milk supply
  • high demand cheese
  • low cheese inventory
Bearish
  • vacation time
  • Milk volume above previous year
  • internationally declining prices
Education price index skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
05.07.2023 €2,455 2.€330 €2,450 €2,412 -€53
06/28/2023 €2,475 €2,370 €2,550 €2,465 -€43
06/21/2023 €2,525 €2,440 €2,560 2.€508 €13
butter €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
05.07.2023 €4,575 €4,620 €4,780 €4,658 -€52
06/28/2023 €4,630 €4,720 €4,780 €4,710 -37 €
06/21/2023 €4,710 4.€750 €4,780 4.€747 -€58
liquid milk cents/kg
publication Germany Netherlands Denmark Ireland index the change
12.06.2023 46.54 44.75 47.24 41.76 45.07 -5.25
05/12/2023 49.76 50.50 53.32 47.68 50.32 -5.13

Preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office shows that the number of dairy cows kept in Germany continues to decline. In May 2023, a dairy herd of 3.8 million animals was counted, which is a decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous year. Due to the high milk prices last year, however, the decline was less severe than in previous years. Farms with dairy cattle husbandry are also declining, here the decline is 3.7% compared to the previous year, the herds kept are getting larger. While the average number of cattle in 2022 was 71 cows per farmer, it is now 73 animals. The milk volume also declined at the end of June, around 0.5% less milk was delivered in the 25th calendar week compared to the previous week. Compared to the year as a whole, however, there is still a lead of 2.6%. The commodity markets remain calm. The protein side is balanced and stable overall. Milk fats are mostly under price pressure, since there were plenty of goods on offer. On the national average, spot market milk is quoted 0.1 cents lower at 37.8 cents/kg.At the first listing of the month, the trading range for molded butter was reduced by 0.04 euros/kg at the upper end. Sales in food retail are declining, reflecting the wave of travel due to the beginning of the holidays. With NRW and Lower Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Bremen, four federal states have already started the holiday season. Consumer prices have recently remained stable at EUR 1.45 for the 250-gram packet, but are EUR 0.74 cheaper than in July 2022. Retailers are waiting for impulses for block butter . The market continues to be particularly calm, and buyers are currently not very willing to buy. Since the cream prices are also falling, the quotations for block butter are also weaker. More sales volumes have recently been seen again on the EEX, and the price trend is also falling here. Butter prices also fell internationally at the Global Dairy Trade Tender in New Zealand on Tuesday. Outgoing goods for cheese are also high in the reporting week.Although consumer demand is seasonally somewhat lower - the summer holidays are also reflected here - the holiday regions in particular are buying brisk goods in Germany and outdoor gastronomy is also showing greater demand. Industry and bulk consumers sometimes prefer deliveries, but mostly call off goods in the agreed contract scope. The listing for block goods was able to increase at the lower end of the trading range in the first listing in July, bread products in Hanover continued unchanged at 3.75 - 3.90 euros/kg. Falling prices and decidedly calm demand still characterize the market for skimmed milk powder . There have been no recent inquiries worth mentioning, either from the domestic market or from the export channel. Even short-term deliveries are hardly ever in demand. The listing is correspondingly weaker and the contract prices on the EEX futures exchange also declined with significantly increased sales volumes. Weaker price tendencies and calm demand can also be seen for whole milk powder and whey powder .

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