14.
07.23
Milk volume continues to decrease - high availability of goods

Milch News, 07/14/2023

Bullish
  • Seasonal milk yield development
  • good demand cheese (domestic and abroad)
  • international competitiveness partially given
Bearish
  • attractive euro
  • weak demand Asia
  • high inventories
  • Milk volume significantly above previous year
Listing results milk products Germany:
Skimmed milk powder (food grade), €/t
07/12/23 2,330 until 2480
05.07.23 2.400 until 2550
Branded butter (moulded 250 g), €/kg
07/12/23 4.80 until 4.96
05.07.23 4.80 until 4.96
Emmental and square hard cheese (45% fat in dry matter), €/kg
07/12/23 5.35 until 6.95
05.07.23 5.35 until 6.95
Gouda/Edam , block (48%/45%/40% fat in dry matter), €/kg
07/12/23 3.55 until 3.75
05.07.23 3.55 until 3.70

The amount of milk continues to decline. Compared to the previous week, 0.4% less raw milk was delivered in the 26th calendar week. Compared to the same week of the previous year, this still corresponds to a lead of 2.2 percent, the previous year's total is exceeded by 2.6% compared to the previous year. On the spot market, the national average rose by 0.1 cents to 38.8 cents/kg. The commodity markets themselves appear to be lacking in impulses and waiting. The holiday and holiday season is reflected in the butter markets . Noticeably fewer quantities are being sold in the food retail trade, and molded butter orders from manufacturers have also calmed down accordingly. The listing continued to move at the level reduced in the last week. In the supermarket, the 250-gram pack still costs 1.45 euros. Block butter prices are also declining. The buyer side is holding back on new business or is not even active at all due to the holidays. Discussions currently being held are mostly limited to deliveries in the fourth quarter of this year. Prices are still under pressure overall, also due to the recent weaker development.In export business is also still running smoothly, but traders are again registering more inquiries from third countries. The contracts on the EEX have recently softened again, in a weekly comparison significantly fewer butter contracts have recently been traded on the EEX. The summer holidays are also having a greater impact on the cheese market . Nevertheless, demand remains extensive with limited supply. Calls and inquiries from the food retail and industry sectors have declined somewhat, but there are still good sales opportunities in the export business. The price quotation in Hanover was increased by 5 cents for block goods at the upper end, for bread goods 5 cents were quoted more at the lower end of the trading range and 10 cents more at the upper end. The range here is now 3.80 to 4.00 euros/kg. Food grade skimmed milk powder continues to be traded very calmly. New deals only come about occasionally. The demand is currently hardly measurable and the still high milk volume ensures that more than enough goods are available.Demand on the export market is also declining after prices were lowered in many other important export countries. The butter and cheese exchange in Kempten lowered the listing at both ends of the trading range by EUR 50 per tonne and on the EEX the contracts also tended to be noticeably weaker with declining sales volumes. The demand and the price level for skimmed milk powder in animal feed quality is stable, but the market trend is described as calm here too. There is also hardly any demand for whole milk powder . New business is only very sporadic and because European goods are still not competitive, things are quiet in this sales channel as well. Whey powder is stagnating in terms of price. The availability of goods is very good due to an extensive cheese production, the demand is limited both in the domestic market and in the export channel. Whey powder is also listed weaker on the EEX compared to the previous week with quiet sales.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

There is a veritable summer slump in the milk market. But that alone is not enough. The amount of milk ensures more than sufficient availability of goods - with the exception of semi-hard cheese. Buyers are again more cautious, also because there is hardly any competition for demand from exports.

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