17.
08.23
Futures markets under pressure

Milch News, 08/17/2023

Bullish
  • Seasonal milk yield development
  • End of the summer holidays in many federal states
  • low cheese inventory
Bearish
  • Block butter and MMP are plentiful
  • reluctance on the part of the buyer
  • Milk volume above previous year
Education price index skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
08/16/2023 €2,275 2.€190 €2,210 €2,225 -€65
09.08.202 €2,260 €2,230 €2,380 €2,290 €43
08/02/2023 €2,270 €2,230 €2,240 2.€247 €7
butter €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
08/16/2023 €4,400 4.€370 €4,840 €4,537 -21€
09.08.202 €4,435 €4,400 €4,840 €4,558 €33
08/02/2023 €4,365 €4,370 €4,840 4.€525 -€28
liquid milk cents/kg
publication Germany Netherlands Denmark Ireland index the change
08/142023 42.06 43.25 41.75 39.43 41.62 -1.97
07/12/2023 46.54 43.25 43.76 40.79 43.59 -1.48

The supply of raw materials has recently fallen again and is continuing its seasonal trend. Compared to the 30th calendar week, around 0.9% less milk was delivered in the 31st week. The lead over the previous year as a whole has thus melted, and around 2.4% more milk was currently served in the first seven months. At 36.9 cents/kg, milk on the spot market is trading 0.9 cents lower than in the previous week and sufficient raw material availability is currently putting pressure on prices on the concentrate markets. With the end of the summer holidays in other federal states, a revival in the demand for formed butter is noticeable. The price reductions in the food retail trade at the beginning of the month also boosted demand. The 250 gram pack currently costs 1.39 euros. A year ago, 2.59 euros were due for the same amount. On the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten, the listing was reduced by an average of 4 cents/kg. Block butter continues to be traded without significant impetus. The prices continue to develop weaker and, especially with later delivery dates, the bid and ask prices diverge widely.The end of the summer holidays in many federal states is not yet noticeable in this sub-market, but improved demand is expected for the coming weeks. Butter contracts are also trending weaker on the EEX, but overall more contracts have recently been traded here. Internationally, too, butter is currently under pressure. The Global Dairy Trade Tender saw a converted price of 4,154 euros/t, down 3 percent from the last auction. Food retailers are increasingly ordering cheese again. Special offers in the food retail trade ensure good consumer demand. Outdoor gastronomy is still reluctant to buy because of the weather conditions. Industrial customers call off goods to the agreed extent. Exports continue at the previous level, as is usual for the season. The listings in Hanover remained unchanged yesterday and the cheese listings in Kempten were also able to continue their level undeterred. Demand on the market for skimmed milk powder has also been calm this week.Only a few new inquiries are received from the plants, which are mainly focused on deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2023. Since fewer goods have recently been produced, however, there are slightly firmer price trends for food grades. At yesterday's listing in Kempten, prices at the lower end of the trading range rose by EUR 30 per tonne. Skimmed milk powder was recently under slight pressure on the EEX. In the last week, however, the turnover volume on the futures exchange has increased noticeably. In the Global Dairy Trade Tender, skimmed milk powder fell. Whole milk powder is also showing firmer tendencies again, although demand in mid-August was still described as lacking momentum. Whole milk powder from Germany or Europe is still not competitive on the international stage, so the demand from this sales channel is calm. Meanwhile, there is no clear direction for whey powder . Due to the high cheese production, a lot of goods are currently available, but at the same time there is still no revival in demand in many federal states with the end of the summer holidays.Whey powder in food quality is therefore also listed lower, but feed goods were able to fix slightly in price compared to the previous week.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The milk market as a whole is still under pressure. However, the demand for cheese and molded butter is benefiting from the return of many consumers from vacation. However, the markets for milk powder and block butter remain calm. Due to the difficult international competitive situation, only a few impulses are currently to be expected.

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