31.
08.23
US suppliers offer cheap cheese

Milch News, 08/31/2023

Bullish
  • declining milk deliveries
  • Continued high cheese outgoings
  • lower inventories of cheese
  • fixed trends spot markets
Bearish
  • Milk quantity still higher than last year
  • partial lack of international competitiveness
  • Reluctance to buy powder and block butter
Market milk value ex farm in cents/kg (for standard milk with 4% fat and 3.4% protein) as of the close of trading on August 30, 2023
Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct. 23 Nov. 23 Dec. 23 Jan. 24 Feb 24 March 24th Apr 24 May. 24 Jun. 24 Jul.24
36.27 35.99 37.05 37.16 37.76 38.27 38.75 39.23 40.31 40.79 41.26 41.75
Calculation basis: bid price
Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct. 23 Nov. 23 dec23 Jan. 24 Feb 24 March 24th Apr 24 May. 24 Jun. 24 Jul. 24
36.07 35.33 36.52 36.16 36.52 37.47 37.92 38.29 39.01 39.48 nn nn
Calculation basis: asking price
Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct. 23 Nov. 23 Dec. 23 Jan. 24 Feb 24 March 24th Apr 24 May. 24 Jun. 24 Jul.24
36.87 36.87 37.54 38.06 38.65 39.60 40.07 40.66 41.61 42.08 42.56 nn

Milk deliveries continue to decline and are approximately at the level at the end of August 2022. However, in the first 33 calendar weeks, a total of 2.3 percent more milk was delivered compared to the same period in 2022. Industrial cream was able to improve somewhat as a result of the declining milk volumes develop more firmly. Milk protein is also being traded more strongly again. Above all, higher demand from southern Europe can be seen here. Spot market milk is up again after last week's decline. 37 cents/kg are currently being quoted, which is 0.7 cents/kg more than in the previous week. More and more citizens are coming back from vacation and so the calls for molded butter are also increasing. The food retail trade orders higher quantities, which also exceed the level of the previous year. The prices quoted on the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten remain unchanged at 4.64 to 4.80 euros/kg. In food retail, consumers currently pay 1.39 euros for the 250 gram packet. In advertising campaigns, however, offer prices of 1.19 euros are also reported. Demand for block butter continues to be subdued.Particularly for later deliveries, hardly any significant deals are concluded; buyers and sellers are often far apart. The prices remain unchanged. On the EEX, prices were able to develop somewhat more firmly in the short-term delivery dates. Outgoing goods for cheese remain at a high level with unchanged prices. The food retail trade or constantly and calls up the goods according to the agreed contracts. Demand from industry is described as seasonal. Due to the weather, calls from the catering industry also fell slightly short of manufacturers' expectations. There is also a high demand for cheese on the world market, although pricing is more difficult here. American providers in particular are present on the market with affordable offers. Stock levels remain young and below average, even though cheese production has recently expanded. Little has changed on the powder markets this week.Demand for skimmed milk powder for food grades continues to be quiet, in terms of volume the number of new contracts has even decreased somewhat. Buyers are currently asking for deliveries in the 1st quarter of 2024, but manufacturers are still not willing to sell here, and uncertainty about the further development of the milk volume is a burden here. The export market is also subdued. Prices remained unchanged at yesterday's quotation. Orders for feed products continue to be cautious, and industrial customers in particular appear to be well supplied with existing contracts. Skimmed milk powder on the EEX has recently increased somewhat and the EEX index has also risen again this week by 10 euros/t. Whole milk powder is listed somewhat weaker than in the previous week, the butter and cheese exchange lowered the prices by an average of 20 euros/t to 3,330 to 3,430 euros/t. In some cases, quantities are traded effectively; demand from third countries is currently hardly noticeable due to the high European prices. Stability characterizes the whey powder market .In terms of volume, activity has also decreased in this submarket, but prices remained at the previous week's level. Discussions for later delivery dates are increasingly taking place again, which also lead to conclusions.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Dairy products continue to be very popular among consumers. Molded butter and cheese are widely purchased and products from the white line have also become increasingly popular with smokers. The price reductions in food retail have led to more dynamic demand. The picture remains subdued among large buyers and industry. The outlook is stable and unchanged.

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