At the end of October, milk deliveries continued to decline. Compared to the previous week, around 0.3 percent less raw milk was delivered in the 43rd calendar week, and for the second time in a row, the previous year's milk volume in the comparison week was also lower. There is stable development on the concentrate markets. The price of industrial cream is at the same level as the previous week and continues to be in good demand. Demand for skimmed milk concentrate continued to increase and sales prices rose slightly. The spot market prices for milk were able to stabilize somewhat again at the turn of the month and are currently 0.3 cents higher at 42.7 cents/kg as a national average. Firmer trends in spot market prices are also reported from the Netherlands and Italy. Formbutter was able to increase in yesterday's listing in Kempten, with the listing rising particularly at the lower end of the trading range. After a somewhat quieter order volume due to the holidays at the end of October, demand and outgoing goods picked up significantly again this week. Food retailers are currently purchasing more butter than in the same period last year.Consumer prices have increased; the 250-gram package now costs 1.59 euros, 14 cents more than at the end of October. Organic butter also increased in price, but consumer prices only rose by 6 cents per 250 grams and are currently 2.65 euros. The block butter market remains calm and divided in terms of prices. While frozen goods are still sold at cheaper prices than fresh goods. The price in Kempten rose slightly and was able to gain 16 cents/kg at the upper end of the trading range. There is a lack of impetus in the export business. There was butter at the Global Dairy Trade Tender in New Zealand and is therefore again below the level of the local price quotations internationally. On the EEX, short-term delivery dates in particular were able to increase over the last few trading days. The availability of semi-hard cheese continues to decline, but at the same time demand remains at a high level. The dynamic business development continues and has resulted in the quotations in Hanover developing more firmly. For both block and bread goods, trading spreads tightened at both ends.Inventories remain young and below average, and production is also limited due to lower milk deliveries. Additional and short-term deliveries cannot always be provided; if deliveries are possible, buyers have to accept higher price surcharges. Trade in skimmed milk powder is currently restricted. A large food trade fair in Dubai means that many traders are currently not operating on the market and last week the holidays also slowed down business activities. Because of the rising prices in October, many buyers have already stocked up extensively and are now taking a cautious position on the market again. The stocks have been reduced well, so that they hardly have any impact on the market. Also because the declining milk deliveries have limited production options, there is currently hardly any supply pressure on manufacturers. As a result, the price quotations in Kempten increased again yesterday. Internationally, powder prices continued to rise. Skimmed milk powder in New Zealand rose 2.3% at Tuesday's auction.The settlement prices on the EEX have recently fallen slightly again, with the forward dates in particular appearing weaker, while the trading months from January 2024 continue to be traded above the current cash market level. However, on yesterday's trading day, prices pointed north again. Whole milk powder was able to increase in price and international prices also continued to rise, but European whole milk powder is still not competitive. The business of domestic manufacturers is focused on the European internal market, and industrial customers in particular increased their orders. The demand for whey powder continues to rise, and deals continue to be made steadily. Buyers were primarily looking for short-term deliveries. Prices rose on average by 20 euros per tonne compared to the last quotation at the end of October, but demand for feed qualities such as whey powder was somewhat weaker recently and prices fell slightly.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The positive mood on the milk market continues. The surplus goods, which have often put pressure on prices this year, have been reduced and, due to good demand for molded butter and very good demand for cheese, no new stocks are currently being built up for many products, which are likely to put pressure on the market in the near future. The early indicators point to rising payout prices for producers. However, the typical milk low will soon be reached and milk quantities will increase again, which should limit further price increases. The partial decline in international prices also tends to have a negative impact.
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