23.
05.15
15:04

China's imports of milk products

As hopes on China's return to the old milk product imports are entitled?

In the two years, 2013 and 2014, China has increased two years 2011 and 2012 its milk product imports between 57% for butter and skimmed milk powder (SMP) 64% compared to the average of the previous. In the case of whole milk powder (WMP) increased the average import volumes from 406.000 to 645.000 tons by around 60%.

Milk prices worldwide were the result of this rapid demand growth in the order of magnitude above the 40 ct / kg mark. The Chinese import demand is critical to the level of milk prices.

The growth rates in the year 2014 fell off significantly after the import volumes significantly below previous years were rolled back in the second half of the year. The established high stock level and the high prices have helped, that China had to conserve the limited provided financial resources for the import.  

Nevertheless, concerns are raised, that after a nearly 50% price drop for dairy products at world level in the autumn of 2014, the Chinese imports increased again are.

In the first Three months of this year , imports from 38% in MMP-50% at VMP under the still high levels of comparison last year left behind. Regular Chinese imports are above average in the first months of the year, but stabilised in the further course of the year.  Should the import volumes on the current level arrive, the previous year's figures could be achieved in 2015 narrowly.

Market experts estimate that laid out Chinese stocks will be dismantled as far as the next time, that a recovery population need could arise. In the case of storable less quantities of butter, a constellation of such looming already. The purchase prices are at an attractive low level. China's leadership is attempting to have food in sufficient quantities in stock to ensure the food most definitely in critical care areas.

However doubts expressed , further increasing the quantities of earlier years. Dahour is referenced to the slightly less strong income growth in China. The strict handling of financial resources is also made as an argument in the field. And last but not least, it shows on the Chinese efforts to promote the domestic production of milk products.

However, one should not overestimate the potential of increasing domestic production . Not sufficient for building a high-performance dairy some few presentable projects by thousands of dairy farms. In addition to produce 100,000 tons of whole milk powder equivalent, nearly 2 million cows are additionally required in the current milk output of 4,100 kg per cow. In recent years, the cow numbers were on average increased every year 350,000 animals. The milk yield per animal has grown only slightly.   

With the mere milk production, it is also not done. There is a branched and going through organised supply structure with cold chain , etc.. It lacks in spite of all international assistance, it has brought into the country.

China remains a very strong Staatshandelsland. Political decisions take precedence over free-market considerations. Hard transparent!

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