China's milk product imports into a waiting loop

China's imports of milk products behave very

In the last 7 years from 2008 to 2014, China has its imports of milk products annually increased. In the case of whole milk powder were increased the quantities to the 15 times by 46,000 tonnes to 671.000 tonnes. Skimmed milk powder increased imports to the 4.5 x of 55,000 on 253,000 t. butter was increased by a few 13,000 t in 2008 to 80,000 tonnes in the year 2014 to the 6 x .

The unusually high import growth in China were a critical reason for the world's high milk prices. Increasing milk production at world level was barely able sufficiently to meet the demand. After decades of past surplus production you got used to the new market situation.

With the second half of the year 2014 fell but the Chinese imports under the figures of the previous year. A sufficient supply and weaker income growth were the main causes for the Chinese restraint in the imports.  Thus a stagnation phase occurred after years of growth, which extends to the recently.

In the first two months of 2015 continues the development of lower imports compared to the previous year. In the case of the import figures Vollmilch powder to - 42% below the same period of last year, when skimmed-milk powder are 33% - and butter 30%.  However, the absolute quantities at least equal as in the last half of 2014.

Should follow the Chinese import volumes at this level and follow not the usual downturn of last year, with no growth, is to be expected but at least a stabilisation of imports .

Meanwhile strongly fallen prices, is an price-induced increase in demand cannot be ruled out. Expectations for a sufficient supply could also trigger impulses for a greater willingness to buy like a is relaxing economic development in China.

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