12.
07.15
11:25

Commission estimates further increase EU milk production in temperate orbits

Commission: cow numbers drop, increases milk output per cow

In the latest edition of summer of short-time forecasts in the milk market, the Commission assumes, that the milk production in the years 2015 and 2016 to 0.9 or  1% increases. Milk deliveries should increase to the dairies in the same way.

Based of this forecast is the finding that the cow numbers due to the livestock census results on a scale of - 0.3 or - 0.7% decrease will be first. In contrast, but assumed that the previous observation of increasing milk yields per cow and year to 1.2 or 1.7% will continue to hold. Improving the targeted feeding technology and structural effects of selected companies help crucial in addition to the breeding progress.  

When the milk using slightly increasing numbers are expected in all sectors. The production of fresh milk products will increase in the years 2015 and 2016 respectively 0,4%.

The production of milk powder increases the EU Commission estimates 3.2 and 3.6%, respectively. It is consumed but only just under half in the internal market, the rest goes into a rising export. The self-sufficiency rate in this area is reduced.

In the case of skimmed-milk powder production , the year 2014 has delivered an increase of 26.4%. For 2015, the increase to 7.8% to significantly flatten and in the following year be 2016 only 1.8%.  Exports 2014 could be increased by 58% and to reach 2015 is still a growth of 17%. So that the single market could be relieved. + 5% increase in export estimates for 2016.

After the butter production has risen in the year 2014 by 3.9%, assumes increases of 2.8 and 0.2% for the following years. Exports are to remain at a high level of user + 9% growth in third countries.

The cheese production is naturally stetigeren railways. The increase in rates lie between 0.5 to 1.2% and to apply also for the coming years. Domestic cheese consumption 1% per year increases. The exports to resume Russia after the setbacks through the import ban to ride in other countries.

The increases in milk production expected in the upcoming (half) years 2015 and 2016 will be accommodated partly in the internal market, but for the most part on third-country markets. This is to assume that the Russia business both for political and financial reasons for the time being it does not matter. High expectations are placed on an again increasing Chinese import demand.

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