EU perspectives on the dairy market in 2015-2025

EU Conference from Dec. 1-2.2015: views of the milk market in 2015-2025

The 10-year comparison from 2005 to 2014 , a worldwide increase in milk production and consumption is to determine annual 2%. While the increases are often in developing countries.  In the EU a boost was made possible with its quota policy until 2010 through rising rate allocation. In the United States, the dairy feed prices slowed a superior growing milk production. However, milk production in India grew at an above-average, reached but essentially only for increasing domestic consumption.  High global milk prices stimulated the development of New Zealand, Australia, Argentina and Uruguay.  But already with falling prices, the development was stalled.

2005-2014 to average 2.3% per year amounted to in this period the annual increases in global trade in milk products . This marked the years from 2008 to 2013, with above-average numbers far out of the frame. Chinese imports were the major driving force while Russia imports were subject to strong fluctuations.  The largest was followed on the export side New Zealand with more than 50% share of the roughly equivalent US and EU - exports.

For the upcoming Decade for 2015-2025 is assumed by significantly lower growth rates. Estimates assume an increase in worldwide by 1.5% per year. For the EU-28 is expected annual growth rates of 0.9% and + 15 million tons by 2025.  On the consumption side, growing volumes in the channels of cream, butter and cheese are expected, while the fresh milk sector should rather be characterized by declining developments. Processing will be a significant part of this increase in the industrially produced products such as baked goods, sandwiches, and pizzas.

The largest part of additional EU milk production will be directed into the two sales channels, cheese and milk powder . While cheese products used mainly in the inland the increasing quantities of milk powder in the export will drain.  The EU will gain an increasing share of export on the world market.  Focus on skimmed-milk powder exports, their share of exports to double in the next 10 years to more than 30%. At whey powder exports, the share of the world market just below 60% and whole milk powder is to be kept just under 20%.

The competing export areas of New Zealand and United States are heaped back their market share. In New Zealand, the limited space plays a crucial role and the achieved performance level allows only limited growth in the United States.

As regards price developments expected in the next 3 to 4 years a moderate price development on the level between 30 to 35 ct / kg, but from the year 2020 by much higher prices in the range 33 to 43 ct / kg assuming. The background is a more significant increase in demand from the developing and emerging countries.

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