EU milk market between shadow and light The current plight of the milk market is experiencing in the summer months especially strong pressure. During this time, the milk delivery reaches its seasonal peak. When missing sales opportunities, inevitably more milk must be processed into storable products. Although a certain percentage is required to balance the lower delivery in autumn/winter, this year the amount exceeds more than double the usual volume.
Stocks in the green zone is moving in the magnitude to 120,000 tonnes. In an critical area , up to 200,000 tonnes, which should be stretched in the framework of private storage aid move scholar stock quantity.
Currently, however, are 350,000 tonnes in the camp. The Government intervention at a guaranteed minimum price has bought increasingly skimmed-milk powder, to relieve the market. These amounts at first press on prices, but with better market and price conditions, it will return to outsource.
In the past, the government outsourcing over time was stretched to not to compromise the price recovery in the market. In the case of private storage, any chance of a price recovery is used to separate themselves from costly warehousing.
Before the stocks back to the green zone are landed, there is little hope for a basic price improvement that can be done in the EU internal market alone. Decisive measures cause price increase primarily from third-country business as possible in conjunction with a braked production development.
However, the EU milk deliveries in the first months of the year 2016 was on average by 7% over the previous year. With constant inventory of cow, producing more was driven over the increasing milk yields.
For the other months in the year 2016, an increasing cow destocking at the increasing number of cow slaughter and the moderate development of Heifer stocks becomes visible. However, the conditions in the individual Member States are very different. While in Germany, France and Great Britain, the milk supplies show clear trends down, still rising trends are the production figures in the Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, Spain and some other countries.
In the aggregation of all Member States can be from June starting until the December 2016 into acceptance rates calculated up to 1.5%. Given the great importance of the EU milk market the beginning of a market relief could be derived If however the shadow of inventory levels greater than the light of the reduction in production, is still difficult to judge. Finally, other actors on the production and demand side are worldwide at work in this light and shadow play.
