European Commission positive medium-term Outlook for the dairy market

Commission: in the medium term increasing EU milk production and rising milk prices

In the recent Commission report on the medium-term recovery and preview of the EU milk market for the past 10 years an moderate increase in milk production in the EU determined. The cause will be to see the first views of the limitation caused by the quota system . On closer inspection, it is however to determine that a stagnation of production is observed in the period 2005 to 2009 for EU dairy prices. In the aftermath of the sets with rising milk prices a also a growth of in production, by allows quota amounts, but also limited.

The high milk price increases during this time are a consequence of the increased world market prices due to a import boom of the two big countries, China and Russia. With the subsequent import ban of Russia and the halving of Chinese imports, worldwide increased milk production had to give up two key sales opportunities. Rising production and falling consumption was a rapid fall in prices.  The lifting of the EU quota system is only a part of the entire market.

A temporary increase in the number of the cow in the EU can be observed in the run-up to the task of rate of , a development that again facing down but still during the year 2015. The increasing milk yields per animal but again contribute to increase the milk supply.

The EU Commission estimates further increases of milk production under 0.8% per year on average for the Next 10 years . Milk deliveries to dairies should however get an average of 1%, because direct marketing and supply decline significantly especially in the new EU Member States. The cow numbers the previous trend following should continue to decrease, the milk yield is steadily increasing.

The domestic consumption of dairy products is increasing for the time being only moderately. The greater part of the surplus generation is to be discontinued on rising exports to third countries. 

For the next few years until 2019, brand is assumed by an moderate increase in milk prices just above the 30 ct / kg which roughly corresponds to the average level of dating back many years with all ups and downs. From 2020 , the Commission estimates a further significant price increase in the grounds of rising demand from emerging markets and the limited production capabilities of so far leading exporter of dairy products in New Zealand.

The preview is the result of a current assessment on the basis of today's findings and should as a first orientation .

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