09.
05.15
14:51

FAO estimate: Global milk market 2015 with slower growth

FAO is from stabilization trends on the global milk market

In their half-yearly assessment of the central agricultural development, the FAO (food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) assumes a stabilization of the milk market in the course of the year 2015 .  The worldwide prices for dairy products in the last half of 2014 has recovered in the first two months of the year 2015. A sequel can be but for seasonal reasons of the early summer highs of milk deliveries in the North hemisphere still waiting.

According to the FAO, the global milk production on over 800 million 2% higher to fail than in the previous year. In the year 2014, the increase was above-average 3%. At the same time, demand from the food import ban of Russia's and China's import restraint fell considerably weaker.

The increase in global milk production is differently distributed. India stands in first place with an increase of almost 4.5%. However, this increase will achieve little market significance because India essentially is self contained and will provisionally.

In the second largest region of production EU assumes average after the quota by a 1.25% increase in milk production. In some few EU Member States production increases are expected as a result of the abolition of the quota, in the vast majority of price-related constraints are predicted.

In the third largest region of production, the FAO estimates a boost of US milk production from 2.8%. The strong recent price reduction has resulted but California in conjunction with drought-related food shortages in the SW of the country with a focus on a significant slowing down of milk supplies.

The two important dairy exporting countries New Zealand and Australia should only marginally increase their milk production. The local price decline fell much more drastically due to the dependency on exports as in other production areas. The mainly basic food-oriented dairy production is dependent on sufficient grass growth. Insufficient rainfall to slow the flow of milk. This year, the weather phenomenon El Nino will play a role. This means any precipitation deficits for the oceanic States.

Despite import alert Russia to can barely contain its own production according to the FAO. The decades of production decline is projected for 2015.

Only small increases in milk production are expected in the South American countries . While Brazil still slight growth trends reveals that the downturn in Argentina continues also by 2015.

The global trade in milk products no longer has the momentum of earlier years with growth rates between 5% and 10%. For 2015, 3% are expected to increase between 2.5 to max. On the export side, the exports of the leading countries of New Zealand, the EU, the United States remain in a moderate frame. On the import side lacking is still a strong demand of China. The imports of the North African countries and the Middle East remain relatively steady. First, Russian imports of milk products remain indefinitely both in political and financial terms, far below the level of previous years.

A is cyclical price recovery to expect autumn 2015. To do this a lot must move on the demand side. Waiting for China!

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