Global dairy trade from 1 Apr-15: second spring Auction - 10.8%
The average result of the GDT auction to the 1 April 15 with a repeated sharp price decline in the at the beginning of the year 2015 beginning price upswing again smooth made. Not entirely unexpectedly came, but the level here but surprisingly clearly.
First is an only slightly higher supply of + 200 t for the first auction to determine. The restraint on the demand side might have been but crucial. Given the fallen-away rate brake in the EU and the expected seasonal increase in supply in the coming months in the northern hemisphere, into sufficient quantities of offer are expected for the coming months of the delivery until the autumn.
An increasing amount of milk is processed usually predominantly to milk powder , so that offering an above-average increase can be expected in the foreseeable. So it is not surprising that full and skimmed milk powder for almost all delivery months with double-digit negative results have cut off. The 5-year average level of GDT auctions could not be stopped.
The milk fat range section only half as bad. The limited shelf life of the product requires ongoing replacement. The so far achieved price level is just under 5-years average.
For the next few months, the quantity of milk produced in New Zealand and Australia to rd. 2 is m t towards zero go, while at the same time, Northern Hemisphere seasonal production in the same amount will rise to the. To what extent have a cyclical effect is thrown over the seasonal effect, is not clearly identifiable. However, the development of the delivery in the EU shows that in addition to the quota brake, also the price brake has played a significant role for the reduced delivery.
If milk prices continue to remain in the coming months at a seasonal low level, the suspected increase in supply will be quite moderate. Here, the volume of food plays a significant role in the pasture areas.
The price development in the EU is still the euro exchange rate in the game. Should be due to the problem of Greece the euro exchange rate continues to show from the weak side cheap export opportunities over the competitors consist of Oceania and the United States. Already, the prices for EU dairy signal only a slight tendency to the weakness. In any case, the strong declines in the GDT auction will affect only very moderately on local prices.
The forward rates at Eurex, Frankfurt indicate there is a classic bout of seasonal weakness, which does not go beyond the framework of usual seasonal descent. For the autumn 2015 branch trends again ascending the quotes.
