02.
07.15
15:08

GDT auction from 1 July 2015: offer overwhelmed demand

GDT auction by the 1 July 2015: + 20% more range, - 5.9% price drop

The international Internet auction the global dairy trade (GDT) on 1 July 2015 has since end of March 2015 with a repeated price decline. Jan 2016 was across all products and dates an average score by - 5.9%.

A substantial share of this result is the quantity increased by 20% . A corresponding increase in demand could not be observed.

The largest item in the auction lot takes a whole milk powder. With an average surcharge of - 10.8% of all delivery dates this milk product was 1. Line to the negative result at. In particular the front months Sept Nov 2015-13.3 to-10.9% were double-digit negative. The last two delivery months remained on average. Biggest sellers is China for whole milk powder regularly.  The purchasing restraint to be observed since the second half of 2014 the Chinese seems to have changed this time not fundamentally.

Skimmed-milk powder as the second most important dairy in the auction offer remained with average 5.8% in the context of the total. The monthly results ranged from-2.9% to 9.0%. In this case, China is the biggest importer in regularly.

The two butter fats offer cheaper cut for the second time in a row. Butterfat scored a favorable outcome with + 1.6%, essentially extended delivery date of all.

Normal butter was not so successful with 0.3% in the average. With multiple 0.9 and + 0.9% was held by the subtotals in the frame.

The diversified demand for the less durable butter fats compared to the milk powder products is as to present major causes for different cutting off.  

Overall, the level of revenue for dairy products on the low price level of the year 2009 moves. At that time, the financial crisis was the ultimate cause of the weak demand and price levels. At this stage, especially the failure of Russia's and the restrained purchasing willingness to blame China include the removed effect of increased milk production of the past few years.

The expectation that a market relief would occur with economic and seasonal supply decline on world level , has not been confirmed so far. To do this, the current potential of demand remains still too small. For July, it is again a saissonalem drop in milk production can be expected. But in August, the seasonal increase in Oceania and other countries of the southern hemisphere of the Earth begins. If the production increase achieved the same size in previous years must be questioned given the low milk prices in these regions by the 25 ct / kg. In addition is to rake, which slows down the feed generation this fall/winter with the El Niño weather phenomenon.

On the northern hemisphere is with rainfall deficits in wide share Europe's already shortage of food, which could continue to fall out. However, the (over) abundant rainfall in the United States provide a cheap basic food supply.  While the European milk production has fallen below last year's level, is U.S. milk deliveries above the production line of the previous year.

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