GDT auction by the 16th Sept. 2014: end the downturn?

Global dairy trade: auction result ends with a positive zero

Is The end of the decline of in milk prices already achieved?  After 7 months of continuous decline by almost 50%, the latest GDT-auction average closes with an unchanged . But behind it are different rates, depending on the product of - 6.9% to + 1.3% range without to weight the importance of individual products. Only full (+ 0.6%) and skimmed milk powder (+ 0.9%) have a market share of 80%.

Whole milk powder reached an average price of approximately $2,700 per t or an increase compared with the prior auction on Sep. 2-14 of + 0.6%. On the last 3 dates a stabilization of prices is measured off. Delivery months remained in a relatively narrow range from + 1.9%-1.4% in the March 15.

Bidding prices achieved for skimmed-milk powder on average + 0.9%. The range was enough % for the month of Nov 14-10.5% depending on the delivery month + 3.9 during the delivery month of March 15. Only the corporate Amul (India), euro serum (France) and Fonterra (New Zealand) took part in the offering. The two U.S. companies have held back for reasons of high U.S. prices. With $2,600 je MMP, the lowest price level was lower than for years. The quotes are just below the results in 2012, only 2009 showed even lower prices.

The butter fat (butterfat and normal butter) completed both in the minus 2.2 to-2.5%. In case of normal butter , there was Very much different results between the delivery dates: while the Nov. 14 contract closed down with + 3.6%, price discounts achieved the first months in the new year by 2015 by - 4.1 to - 10.1%.

Butterfat couldn't keep the previous quotes in all delivery date. The price reductions range from - 1.6% - 3.5%, whereby the initial months 2015 provided the weaker results.

For the first time on the occasion of the GDT auction occurring German dairy Ammerland sweet whey powder received average charges for the single month of delivery Nov. 14. What value is this result, is put to the test in the next auction dates.

Cheddar cheese fell on all delivery months from Nov. 14 to Jan. 15-7.3 to 5.3% compared with the previous auction. The price level with approximately $3000 per t reached the low summer values of the year 2012.

The average auction results move on the summer price level of the year 2012, but still well above the values of the year 2009, which was strongly influenced by the global financial crisis. In the new year, the price fluctuations with a gentle slope at decreasing rates signal that a basic stabilization of prices of milk product appears to be Not yet safely reached. The weighty price of milk powder, pointing to a looming bottoming but gives hope.

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