04.
08.15
17:46

GDT auction on 4 Aug. 15-9.3% average price reductions

Jul/Aug 2015 GDT auctions: in 3 auctions over 25% losses

In the recent global dairy trade auction of the 04 AUG-2015 have been reduced for the umpteenth time the average prices for dairy products to 9.3%. Be early July 2015 the losses to over 25% Add up. Thus, the current prices are below again in 2009 during the global financial crisis of the last decade.  

The main cause is on the demand side by the widespread failure of Russian imports of dairy products, as well as the ongoing reluctance of Chinese imports in comparison to previous amounts.

However, the sales volume increased nearly every time are the last auctions have been. For the latest auction on 4 Aug. 15, the increase was of the auction volume rd. + 47% to the preliminary auction. The question arises, such behavior in a critical situation of surplus is tactically clever. If necessary the consideration, is to understand that in New Zealand the new Milchsaison has begun. Milk deliveries almost zero quantity increases from July with a 3 million tonnes in the Oct-2015, at the height of the season. Clearance requirements of the well-stocked warehouses was possibly in anticipation of the quantities.

The worst result scored 2016 at an average discount 14.4% on all delivery months to Feb. skimmed-milk powder .

Whole milk powder but denies the largest portion with about two-thirds of auction volume. The average price fell by approximately-10%, where the 23% decline for the month of Feb-2016 looks like a bang.

Even worse, the two delivery months Okt./Nov.-15 for pure butterfat with price reductions from each 27 work % at the previous auction, which has also been exceptionally bad cut off.

Normal butter with 84% fat lost on average around 6% on price reductions. Nov. 15-16% and the Dec. 15 - 12.9% were the worst two months.  To what extent the comparatively moderate rate reduction of-2% for the delivery month Feb-16 hopefuls should be considered, as for the time being remains open.

The upcoming auctions are increasingly rising seasonal delivery quantities in New Zealand and also Australia, while in the northern hemisphere increasing milk deliveries late in the lactation period decrease. The low level of the withdrawal price and the weather conditions impaired feed basis will be effective as a factor. However, need for a reversal of the trend of milk prices demand especially from China increase again significantly. Given the economic difficulties in the Middle Kingdom will need to Park I guess a prolonged period of patience.

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