International milk prices rise - GDT auctions + 30% since the beginning of the year
For the 5th time in a row that includes international Internet auction global dairy trade in the 14-day rhythm with an increase in price ab. The surcharge on 17 Feb 2015 was + 10.1% compared to the previous auction. Since beginning of the year 2015, milk product prices by around 30% have recovered it. Thus a considerable part of the 50% price decline has been brought up again in 2014 last year.
With an average increase of 13.7% with stable results on all delivery months by 2015 in the August market leader for the higher level of listing was once again whole milk powder .
Major cause of the price increases are the declining volumes of supply. This applies particularly to the auction action even with a focus on New Zealand offers. But can be observed, that the last offer increases as a result of previous milk prices subside significantly worldwide. At the 10 major milk-producing countries at world level fell the supply situation by an increase of 7% to just 3.5%. The decline continued until recent times has shown its effect.
Be observed, leading importing countries except Russia engage more in the sale at the same time. The accumulated storage warehouses are running out. Pent-up demand is visible. The future supply is clearly not greater.
Although it is still early in the year, a cyclical price reversal seems to prevail. The development is supported by a seasonal offer low with special characteristics in New Zealand, Australia and Argentina. The pasture and lactation period in the southern hemisphere is aiming the end, while in the northern hemisphere have a temperate winter range dominated. Last time, strong performances in the EU be effected by the rate in a few countries with tradition. In the majority of under supplying EU Member States, the fallen prices of milk provide skid marks on the milk delivery.
Even in the United States until the end of 2014 drastically fallen prices under the brand of €0.28 / kg begin constantly offer amounts over last year's level to leave traces.
The seasonal "Willow shoots effect" from April/May/June 2015 will ensure this country again for an increasing milk supply. Low extent the end of quota in the EU will make itself felt, because individual regions such as Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Austria will use the space to increase the quantities of milk.(Rate effect). The additional volumes are likely to hold against the background of the world market within manageable limits.
And stocks of milk powder, butter and cheese are high enough to cover the needs of the front.
So, it will take a while for a good average price level can enforce sustainable. The still faces litmus test on stable milk prices at the average level during the early summer months.
