20.
10.15
18:36

GDT auction Oct. 20, 2015: results in weak minus

GDT auction of 20 Oct. 2015 with durchschnittlch - 3.1%

After the strong gains of the last 4 auction dates with rate increases up to 50% experienced the current auction of the global dairy trade (GDT) an return type-setter with moderate-3.1%.

The bid amount was slightly below the previous month values.  Obviously submitted the previous auction dates for the fulfilment of a sufficient pent-up demand.

The largest low blow standard butter had to accept. A price was only for the very last month of supply of Apr. 16 - 11.1%.

In contrast, butterfat reached the only positive result that average with + 2.4%. However, the price reductions at the last auction had fallen from unusually high.  There was a need for correction.

The milk powder segments achieved consistently negative individual and average results of - 4.5%.

The result of the recent auction attracted an small incision of the recent price recovery. The global balance of supply and demand are no longer shaped by an above-average bid amount, but by much throttled growth rates. On the demand side, the inventories built up in previous years are melted off, so that again is need for replenishment. However, the locked Russia imports are missing. China's imports have again easily moves upwards, reaching but not the momentum of earlier years. Lacking a stronger economic growth for the Chinese. The reduced purchasing power of the repeatedly devalued Chinese currency also restricts the desire to buy.

The expected cyclical upturn of price in the year 2016 will be significantly smaller and need a longer time than in previous years.

However, surprises with New Zealand are not excluded. A reduced cow numbers decades no longer ensures less milk delivery. Should lead to the El Niño weather aggravating global supply situation on the dairy sector again significantly in the spring/early summer could change 2016.

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